SUPER BOWL LVI

2 Units – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ $1.95 – Pointsbet

The 2nd half has been the higher scoring half in 17 of the last 24 Super Bowls (and one tie), and the rationale makes sense. Early on in the Super Bowl, teams play more conservatively and try to ease them selves into the game. Less trickery, less shots down field, and call more safer plays, like handing the ball off.


On the flip side, the game is to be won in the 2nd half. More aggression, more points.


0.5 Units – Lowest Scoring QTR – 1st QTR @ $3.10 - Sportsbet

The first quarter has been the outright lowest scoring Quarter in 11 of the last 21 Super Bowls. Same rationale as above.


1.5 Units – Joe Burrow Over 273.5 Passing Yards @ $1.90 – Bet365

The Bengals have faced 3 top-5 run defences (DVOA) in 2021. This is the number of passing yards Burrow had against these teams:

- SF (Ranked #2) Week 14 – 348

- BAL (#4) Week 7 – 416

- BAL (#4) Week 16 - 525

I love this angle because it works two-fold. If the Bengals want to score points, they’re going to have to do it in the air, and if they’re trailing, well they’re going to be throwing the ball as well. It would be suicide to run it in the face of the #5 ranked Rams run D.


0.5 Units – Stafford & Burrow both 275+ Passing Yards @ $3.25 - Sportsbet

Stafford has played in 14 indoor games this season and has thrown for 275+ in 10 of them.


0.25 Units – Stafford & Burrow both 300+ Passing Yards @ $5.50 - Sportsbet

I’d be more confident on these bets if it weren’t the Super Bowl (run plays early), but it’s still hard to ignore when we have two gunslingers playing indoors. I may seem that I might be over-exposing myself here with Burrow, but I would’ve had 2 units on his over anyway.


1.25 Units – Cooper Kupp 90+ Receiving Yards + TD @ $2.25 - Sportsbet

Kupp has had the most insane year imaginable – having accumulated 90+ receiving yards in 18 of 20 games, and scoring at least a TD in 13 of those 18. Having 90+ & a TD in 13 of 20 games is just incredible.

This bet has won in 7 of his last 9 games.


Who wins? Model says Rams 26-21, so there’s no value here on the line/total.


More bets + SGM posted on Sunday (AEDT)


Odds are correct as of 14:30 - Thursday 10th February 2022 (AEDT) and are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.