You would’ve been labelled as brave – borderline ‘idiotic – if you predicted that the Superbowl would actually be played on it’s original date of the 7th of February, considering what is going on around the world at the moment, especially in the United States. But, thankfully, here we are!
If you’ve been reading my previews for a while now, you’ll know that I don’t like opening with a long introduction, talking up the game, because I don’t want to write it, and you don’t want to read it. But all I will say is: this Super Bowl is special. Mahomes vs Brady? Find me a better Superbowl QB showdown than that! (Insert mouthwatering gif here).
Note: I don’t normally bet 10+ units on one particular game, because usually it’s simply too much to risk, but more markets means more opportunities. I don’t bet more simply because it’s the Super Bowl, I’m betting more in this game because I’ve spent the same amount of time scouring through this game’s markets as I would in a regular 16-game week.
Who will win?
Chiefs are 25-1 SU in their last 26 games with Mahomes as QB
Chiefs are 15-1 SU, 8-10 ATS with Mahomes this season
13 wins by 1-17
Chiefs are 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS away from Arrowhead this season
Average margin = 8.625.
7 wins by 1-14
Beat Bucs 27-24 in Week 12
Bucs are 14-5 SU, 11-7-1 ATS this season
5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS at home
Bucs are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season
Summary: Chiefs too good to lose, Bucs/Brady too good to get blown out.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chiefs by 1-17 @ $2.08 (Pointsbet SGM)
For those that aren’t new around here, you’ll know that we’ve had very similar bets in the last three Super Bowls. 2nd half – highest scoring half, and 1st qtr – lowest scoring qtr. 3 years, 2 bets each. 5 of the 6 bets have won, so I have no reason not to go back to the well.
The 2nd half has been the higher scoring half in 17 of the last 23 Super Bowls (and one tie).
The first quarter has been the outright lowest scoring Quarter in 11 of the last 21 Super Bowls.
Trends “can” be completely coincidental and can present absolutely zero value at all. For example, just because “Red” has hit on a roulette table 10 times in a row, doesn’t mean Red is any more likely to land than Black is. Thinking otherwise is just purely illogical.
Where I differ in opinions with a lot of people is, this direct analogy doesn’t always apply to sports betting. I believe that if there is “logic” to a trend, it can be deemed as valuable over coincidental.
On average, 1st halves are higher scoring than the 2nd by 0.6 points per game. But in the Superbowl, the 2nd halves have outscored the 1st 17-5-1 in the last 23. So where’s the logic in these trends? Superbowl’s are different to your run of the mill regular season games. Players and coaches will all be dealing with a great deal of nerves. How a team deals with these nerves will help dictate who wins the Lombardi Trophy (Remember when Denver’s Center snapped the ball over Manning’s head for a Safety in the first play of the game?).
Instead of going full throttle from the start, teams (obviously run by coaches) try not to lose the game early, so they seem to be more risk-averse. This usually means more running plays. More running plays means more time off the clock. More time off the clock means less time to score. Compare this to the 2nd half where nerves should be settled, and with everything to play for, it’s time to be aggressive.
3 Units (Max Play) – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ $1.90 (Bet365/TAB)
1 Unit – Lowest Scoring QTR – 1st QTR @ $3.10 (Sportsbet)
Player Props / BYOBets
0.5 Units – Chiefs Win, Mahomes MVP, Mahomes & Brady 250+ each, Kelce TD @ $5 (Sportsbet)
Why I like it: Lets be honest, let’s say the Chiefs win ($1.57), Mahomes will almost definitely win MVP. If Mahomes wins MVP, he will have definitely thrown over 250 yards. If Chiefs win, Brady will almost definitely throw for 250+ based on game-script alone. All of those 3 should equate to maybe just over $2. But we get $5 if we chuck in Kelce TD, who is paying $1.62? Value here.
1 Unit – Leonard Fournette (Bucs) Over 74.5 Rush/Rec Yards @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)
There aren’t too many players in the NFL who have won us more money this year (remember when we had him to have over 6.5 receiving yards… 6.5!!!???)
Fournette has been the lead-back for the Bucs this Post-Season, with 132 yards from 23 touches against Washington, 107 yards from 22 touches against the Saints, and 74 yards from 17 touches against the Packers.
Chiefs concede the 5th most total yards to RB’s in 2020 (Regular season only) – 149.1 yards / game
1 Unit – Darrel Williams (Chiefs) Under 42.5 Rush/Rec Yards @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)
The Bucs concede the least rushing yards and rushing yards per carry in the league. The Chiefs will be wise not to run the ball.
When these two teams played in Week 12, Mahomes threw it 49 times, compared to Chiefs RB’s running it just 16 times. Keep in mind, they also lead for the whole game, too.
With CEH returning last week, and now after a 2 week break, I expect Williams’ output to be minimized, especially in the passing game. Don’t expect many Williams receiving yards here.
1.5 Units – Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to combine for 175+ Receiving Yards and 1+ Touchdown @ $1.91
- This pair have reached this mark in 10 of their 17 games this season
- These two combined for 351 yards and 3 touchdowns when these two teams met in Week 12
- The Bucs concede the least rushing yards in the league, so don’t be surprised if Mahomes has 400+ yards in this game. Kelce and Hill the main beneficiaries.
0.25 Units – Fournette TD + Brady over 294.5 + Mahomes over 329.5 + Under 28.5 1H @ $27 (Sportsbet SGM)
Fournette has scored a TD in 6 of his last 8 games
When facing the Chiefs (with Mahomes), Brady has had 340+ passing yards in 3 of his 4 games
The only way you can beat the Chiefs is by going Head to Head with Mahomes… as impossible as that sounds.
Bucs concede the least rushing yards, and rushing yards per attempt in the league. Do you think the Chiefs are going to waste time running the ball when they have Patrick Mahomes as their QB? I don’t think so.
Counting every Super Bowl this century, Under 28.5 1H in the Super Bowl is 18-3
Thank you to everyone who has followed The Trend Bettor for the 2020 NFL Season. Enjoy the Super Bowl! (If you would like to support The Trend Bettor, please feel free to donate via the link below. All donations, no matter how big or how small, are greatly appreciated.) https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/TheTrendBettorPtyLtd
Odds are correct as of 15:20 - Saturday 6th of February 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly