Super Bowl LIV

We started the 2019 NFL season with 32 teams, and 150 days, and 266 games later, we are down to the final two teams; The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

The ease at which these two won their respective Conference Championship games assures me that these two competing teams are the two right teams to be playing in the Super Bowl.

Not only are both of these teams are ranked in the top 5 according to DVOA’s total weighted rankings, both teams are also ranked in the top dozen in each of Offense, Defence, and Special Teams; and they’re both playing their best football of the season.

Since Mahomes has returned from injury in week 10, the Chiefs are 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS, and are on an 8-0 streak in both SU & ATS.

The 49ers, who are built primarily around their Defence, have seemingly re-found their mojo after a somewhat mid-season slump. After conceding just 12.75 points a game in their first 8 weeks (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS), we saw the defence desert them a little conceding 26 points per game from week 9 to 17 (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS). But since their first-week bye, the 49ers have comeback refreshed and have limited the Vikings and Packers to a total 30 combined points in their two playoff games.

So, how will this Super Bowl play out? Let’s try and find out…

Points indicating that the 49ers will win/cover:

  • The 49ers are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season

  • 49ers concede the 2nd least yards per drive (25.47), 4th least points per drive (1.65), and force the 7th most turnovers per drive (0.143).

  • On offence, the 49ers gain the 10th most yards per drive (33.58), score the 5th most points per drive (2.47), and not only do they rarely punt (0.291 / drive), but they also start their drives with great field position (average starting position of OWN. 31.92 yard line, ranked 2nd in the league)

Points indicating that the Chiefs will win/cover:

  • The Chiefs are ranked in the top 4 in all of the following offensive categories: yards per drive (3rd, 39.03), points per drive (2nd, 2.70), turnovers per drive (4th, 0.083), touchdowns per drive (2nd, 0.295), and field goals per drive (1st, 0.308).

  • The Chiefs are on an 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS streak.

I’m not going to hide from it, I doubt I’ll be making a play in the head to head / spread markets. If I had a gun to my head, I would choose the Chiefs. Would I be confident? Not overly. The market has the Chiefs -1.5, and I think it’s absolutely bang on. No play from me here.

Points indicating that it will be close:

  • Since Mahomes has been the starting Quarterback for the Chiefs, they are yet to lose by more than 7 points

  • Jimmy Garopollo is 18-6 as the starting Quarterback for the 49ers, he has only been beaten by more than 7 points on 3 occasions.

  • 7 of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by 7 points or less.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Either Team to Win by Under 7.5 Points @ $2.05 (TAB)

Total Points Markets:

  • The 2nd half has been the higher scoring half in 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls (and one tie)

  • The first quarter has been the outright lowest scoring Quarter in 11 of the last 20 Super Bowls (excludes ties)

  • I’m staying away from the total points market… BUT, if you were going to play it…

  • If you like the Under, I would be more inclined to play the first half under.

  • And if you like the Over, I would either play the 2nd half over only, or look to play it live as I expect a low scoring first half.

  • One key point I can take away from these trends is that the second half will be higher scoring than the first, something that is uniquely exaggerated in Championship games and Super Bowls. Not only is there a trend, but the trend has great merit. The merit is that both teams – players and coaches – are more nervous in the first half, and the last thing they want to do is be too aggressive to the point where they’ve turned the ball over and concede a cheap score early. Once the nerves settle, and the course of the game takes place, expect some more fluid scoring. Take advantage of this opportunity.

Recommended Bets:

  • 3 Units – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd half @ $1.90 (BetEasy)

  • 1 Unit – Lowest Scoring QTR – 1st @ $3.10 (Sportsbet)

Player Prop:

  • Raheem Mostert has scored in 7 of his last 8 games.

  • Although the Chiefs have really stepped up their Defence in the last month or so, they are ranked 29th in rush defence for the 2019 season (DVOA). I expect Mostert to get some chances here.

Recommended Bet: 1 Units – Raheem Mostert Anytime TD @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)

Novelty Same Game Multi (won’t count towards official P&L)

  • Mostert Anytime TD

  • Chiefs by 1-13

  • Under 27.5 1H

  • Over 26.5 2H

$10 @ $14.75

Thanks for riding and following my bets throughout another successful NFL Season. Enjoy the game!

Odds are correct as of 14:45, Sunday the 2nd of February, 2020 (AEDT). Gamble responsibly.