We have scoured through the major and minor meetings, and gee, it is tough to find the right race that we are confident we will profit in. Most meetings are so wide open we are reluctant even to bet, which is often the case at this time of year when some winter form is still good enough to win and the Spring horses lack that bit of fitness. So, we have gone to a track and a state we don’t bet at much.
Morphettville Race 4 is at a distance where fitness is paramount, and we love tough horses and this will be a race for the tough ones.
We have them in order of 2 8.3 6 with the 1 as a banker in quinellas.
2 Andrea Mantegna: rated on its run at Caulfield 7 starts back, where it was beaten 1.5 in a better class than this, significant. Todd Pannell rode it last race and is still on after the young apprentice rode it for previous 4. Likes it better on top of ground as well. Feeling confident on this one.
8 Ourkhani: We have a lot of time for this horse rarely beaten by much. Slight query dropping back in distance, but think is another that will appreciate the good ground. Assessed on Murray Bridge run 4 starts back. Jake Toeroek has a good understanding as well and suits the horse.
3 Box On Collins: Distance suits. We took previous campaign as a better guide since his last runs haves been getting steadily fitter off a long break. Really think the jockey change to Jess Eaton will suit as it will appreciate soft hands. Also, last runs have been on the slow and is another that will be well suited back on top. A definite threat and at good odds.
6 Star Status Has more upside career wise than most of these. Went on runs 7/8 starts back. Beat Classy Joe who beat ANDREA MANTEGNA last start. Jason Holder doesn’t need an introduction and we anticipate it being just off the speed tomorrow and might swoop over them late.
So, we have two on pace runners going for us and two off pacers that can swoop. This also means we have covered any track bias as well.
1 Bertwhistle We have respect for this one as well. Initially we thought Jennifer Eaton wouldn’t suit but her record of the distance has a positive ROI so we hastily reconsidered! Assessed on runs 2 starts back and its run behind Oceanex 6 starts back. Loves a good surface and a real threat.
Here’s how we are betting them:
5 Units – 2 Andrea Mantegna to win @ $4.40 (Most Books)
3 Units – 8 Ourkhani to win @ $7 (Topsport/Bet365)
2 Units – 3 Box on Collins to win @ $17 (TopSport)
2 Units – 6 Star Status to win @ $ 9.60 (BetEasy)
1 Unit – 1 Bertwhistle Banker Quinella with 220.127.116.11
Memsie Stakes Preview
We love this race, as to us it is the real start of the Spring Program.
Personally it seems down on the class compared to other years, and we will only have a small interest bet because our main objective from the race is to see what the top horses are likely to do for the rest of their campaigns as the Memsie form usually holds up throughout the spring.
We will verify how well they ran against what we expected.
Will Acadia Queen step up? Will Cascadian go as well as it looks like it could? There any so many good and potentially good horses in the race as well as some pretenders so we couldn’t bet with any great confidence and we would rather wait and see.
There’s a clump of horses that if luck goes their way, they could spring an upset. The likes of Princess Jenni, Mr Quickie, Be Good to Ya Mother or Mystic Journey have all one good season but have not lived up to it of late. Will they get it back this year or is it just a run or two before they retire them? It's not worth betting to find out we will watch with no money on.
Iconoclasm is a lightly raced one we are quite keen to see how it goes.
Is Behemoth up to this? Not carried away with the Morphettville run as most others seem to be. We have doubts so not willing to take $4 dollars to find out.
Acadia Queen. Just a particularly good Perth horse or ready to improve in the big time? What price to find out?
Savatanio and Regal Power have good chances and could win without surprise.
Tend to think the Cascadian has most upside and at this price, we’re happy to have a little on as we suspect this will win further races and will get the money back if it loses on Saturday.
We have them 18.104.22.168, but with absolutely no confidence at all.
1 Unit – 9 Cascadian to win @ $11 (Betfair)
Enjoy your day of racing punters!