@ppracingtips - Race of the day - Derby Day

Hey punters!

Just a quick point first up. If weather conditions change markedly as they did last week it may be prudent to have a couple of dollars on, but we normally just forget about racing at the track for the day. We like to make money and sometimes the conditions make it a lottery. High winds or massive rain mean stay out.

We aren’t keen on Doomben today as we think the track should dry out perfectly but currently is a heavy 8 so we will wait until we can be confident in the track before betting there. Not too keen on the racing today from a punting perspective but we do have a few longer priced ones, so it won’t take much to win big.

The Derby looks a lottery more on potential than current form. We aren’t keen on guessing so we have rated the race but isn’t one we would go heavy in. Most of the races look to have multiple chances including our selected race. But as usual we have looked for value. feel the odds warrant betting so we have chosen Race 5 in Flemington, The Empire Rose.

We have them in order of

5 VANNA GIRL (3 units)

4 PRETTY BRAZEN (2 units)

7 ASIAGO (1 unit)

6 SHOUT THE BAR (1 unit)

Vanna Girl looks to have been set for this race from the start. Only 5.7 off them in the Epsom and last start was a very impressive effort. Typical way of getting the horse fit. Strong class over the right distance then step up to a longer distance for fitness then drop back to the right distance and class. Nice! The jockey change a huge plus. (3 units)

Pretty Brazen has a lot to like about her. Looks like the 1600 will suit now and we think she could be a chance in a race like the Stradbroke later on next year. Rock hard fit. Will give a great sight and way over the odds for us. (Two units)

Asiago had a torrid run last start and probably ran 2400! That also is a technique to get a horse fit enough to win next start. No surprise to see it improve dramatically here. Good positive jockey change as this one can do a few things wrong in its races (One unit this one)

Shout the Bar should set the pace here. But we feel it would be better with a sit. However, the stable doesn’t have many horses like that. Disappointing last start but prepared to forgive that run. A few unknowns around it but not prepared to let it run against us at the odds. Oliver doesn’t have to ride no hopers so that is a guide. If it doesn’t win today, we think they may drop it back to a straight 1200. In a week or so. (One Unit)

We hare not sure about Mystic Journey who at her best is a top flight animal. We also like Odeum as a horse, but we have slight queries over both of them. And at the odds prefer to stay out. It is worth considering our standby technique of standing them out in an Exacta with our rated horses. It’s only a few dollars and we think would be an excellent cover bet as the return would be big. We will be doing that ourselves. The odds are really good for our rated horses so we may pull off a big result today. But as always, it’s the yearly figures we are most interested in.

Back Tuesday with the Cup. We bet a long time ago at very big odds on Steel Prince and Oceanex, but we will have our thoughts late Monday or Tuesday Morning.

Make sure you follow @ppracingtips for expert analysis and recommended bets throughout the Spring Carnival!

Good luck, and gamble responsibly!