A touch unlucky last week La Mia Sirena. Classic case of getting the analysis right but was caught on the rails when every race was won from the middle to outside of the track. Gave an enormous sight and battled on strongly for 3rd. at 3.8 the place. We don’t bet each way so we can’t count it, but a few subscribers did. Today we have the dual curse of wet tracks and the rails out, so Caulfield is a no go for us personally, and we are leaving Sydney alone as well. This is how we make our living. We can always wait rather than dissipating capital. So, we have chosen the Sunshine Coast for our race today. Race 7 the Sunshine Coast Cup. We can stake this race to give us 5 runners and a profit.
We have them in order of:
4 PROMETHEUS 1 units
1 EMERALD KINGDOM 3 units
6 TOKORIKI LAD 2 units
14 JUVENTUS 1.5 Units
5 VICTORY EIGHT .5 Unit Totals 8 units out min units return at morning prices 11.
PROMETHEUS Excellent record and loves track conditions Think they found the key to this horse last start when ridden a lot closer. Only query is the distance, but we think the new style will help it overcome this. Last start was a fitness run for this. Amazing odds.
EMERALD KINGDOM Top class runs in stronger races last two. Lightly raced form around it is good. Only negative is Heathcote is way below his usual average, and not sure if Caloundra is te right track for it. Other than that, the horse has a lot to like about it and you just have to put it in. 3.8 is a good price too.
TOKORIKI LAD We note it had a great win course and distance about 4 runs ago. We took that as a guide. That run was an excellent form race Last start was enormous and desperately unlucky the trip. Great run last start. Only has to repeat its last effort to win this. Last start was a much stronger race than this. Impressive distance record and loves being on top of the ground. Would be close t top rated but not sure where it gets to in the run from the barrier, plus it will intensely humis today and the horse has had previous hassles with the heat.
JUVENTUS Could be the surprise packet. Been in stronger grade in Sydney. Cant see Kris Lees bringing it up here just for a holiday. Andrew Mallyon has a great association with Lees, so we think this one has snuck in. Form around it is excellent. Already into 8
VICTORY EIGHT Is another that wouldn’t totally shock if got up. Distance track conditions all suit. Only negative for us is the recent runs have been in a lot weaker grade. But at 30s we think it can give a good return if it can run over the top of them late. We won’t know how the track is playing until much later, but we have a coupe of get back and a couple of race handy horses, so we think we are well covered.
We are also boxing all of them in multis as we feel we have a chance of snagging a long price place getter. But that is just us. We bet on the same horses and when we see an opportunity, we try to max it out.