We have settled on Sunshine Coast Race 5 for our bet today. Not unlike last week’s race this is a race where we feel the Favourite could be a risk, so we are betting around it. Also, from a data analysis perspective the race intrigues us! We are intrigued primarily because of all the disguise runs in the race. Horses running outside distance, class or upside down.
Naturally, the favourite could blast all ours away, but we always look for value and our selections are usually well above $4, so we don’t need to win every race as nice as that would be.
We have them this way
- 1 SABKHAT
- 2 ARTICUS
- 6 SHAUQUIN
- 4 FABULONH
What we like most about SABKHAT is the fact the handicapper also thinks it is the best horse in the race! Form around it is excellent. Winners from every race contested. All its runs have been in higher grade and last start was in a1600 Listed which it couldn’t win but got a dragged along with the pace so got extra speed and fitness. Goes better just off the pace and expect it to storm home. Was paying $8, when last looked. Amazing. 1 unit
ARTICUS is similar. Been racing in 150K races and creditably, then drops to a 30 k race! The start 2 runs ago was the lead up for this race and is right in it. Good track suits as well Form around it is also good. 0.5 unit
SHAUQUIN. Three starts ago was the run for tis race. Trained on track. Form around is good. We think the trip to McKay will have bought this horse on well. First up particularly good and has had a little freshen. We expect it to improve this campaign and go very close. Brooke Ainsworth isn’t riding with much success so that is a slight negative but, if it were just a run, they would have engaged a young apprentice. Right in this. 0.5 Units
FABULONH has good form around it. Might have had it higher in the ratings except it has a habit of over racing. The engagement of Luke Tarrant will suit the horse and if it has overcome the habit will go awfully close. 0.5 Units
Because the favourite has most of the market we can get better odds than we would have thought but be wary It may be a good horse and blow them away but we aren’t sure that Michael Hellyer is riding very well at the moment, even though he has a good record on the horse and we also know that KINGS FULL doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be top notch and its success has been due more to astute placement. Here’s hoping it hasn’t discovered it during the break!
Good luck if you're having a punt, and gamble responsibly!