We have chosen Race 8 at the Sunshine Coast as our “Race of the Day” today because we think there is great value there, and we can cover backmarkers and on pace runners in case the track is playing differently. We are amazed at the prices of some of our rated ones so won’t take much to win a lot. Just how we like it...
This is a hard time of year with the transition to summer grade horses, so we have been extra wary. Nearly every horse in the field have really good win/place percentages and are not over raced there isn’t a real lot between them. Will be a great finish. We have them in this order:
11 GREY MISSILE
3 LE JUGE
10 RECKLESS CHOICE
We like Niccanova. Its runs have been disguised as it had no chance of winning the Sydney Races it was running in. This is miles below its Sydney opposition and the only surprising thing to us is the 7.5 on offer. Its last start at 1200 was just to keep it fit. Our only concern is it has gone over the top, but we like the trainer and also the Jockey suits. Will be ridden quieter and expect it to closer than normal. But can finish hard so we are happy whatever the pace. Track will be cushioned so think it is worth (3 units).
Grey Missile is a very honest horse and will give a great sight. Fradd suits its style and think it will wind up in the run just off the pace. Last runs have been at Doomben which doesn’t suit it and is a clear second rated here. Have no distance queries and if it runs well will be a black booker. (Two Units)
Le Juge Is a better horse than most people think. It will win a good middle distance over the summer for sure. Has run well first up before and has had 2 barrier trials. If the pace is on will likely come home over the top of them. Fresh it may show a good turn of foot. The trials lead us to believe that will be the case. At the odds, great value, (One unit)
Reckless Choice is very well in this race. Have a lot of time for Ben Thompson and Steve O’Dea. So to me looks the real testing material and has never missed a place here at the distance. So we have two sweepers and two on pace horses to cover everything. (One unit)
Bonus pick: One horse we like as a knockout horse if there is to be one is In His Stride (number 14). This one has been running at unsuitable tracks and looks like it will appreciate the distance. Not suited its last 5 starts but the Eagle Farm run was a sound pointer for this. It’s a 100/1 and as you know we often have long priced winners. Might finish last too, but only a very small bet will make you a profit. (0.25 Units)
Enjoy your weekend, and as always, if you're having a flutter, please gamble responsibly!
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