At last... we have found a race we are confident in! It's been a long wait filled with false rails, very poor fields, especially midweek, and upset results; but the wait is over!
Such a shame that probably one of the best days of the racing year has weather playing such a big part, but we've identified a race that we like to walk away with a profit!
We like Race 9, the St Leger at Randwick today.
We have been waiting for Warning’s 3rd up run as we have a strong opinion of this horse and secured 21s when markets we released a couple of weeks ago. We also got 15s and now it is into 10’s. We expect horses leading or just off the pace to have an advantage.
We have them in order of:
2 WARNING 3 units @ $10 or better
1 ENTENTE 3 units @ $3.8 or better
13 PURRFECT DEAL 2 units @ $10 or better
9 LUNCIES 2 units @ $8.5 or better
So, we should show a profit whichever one wins. Obviously, we make a lot if our top rated wins as it should be. Entente is our worst result, but we think it will get out to 4.5. So should be able to score a good return on it. We will also take these ones in multiples but that is part of a separate bank.
WARNING: We thought this one would go to the Caulfield Cup. Has excellent 3rd up form and seems they have planned campaign to make money rather than go for glory. Last two runs have been exercise gallops. Positive jockey change and will race close enough to the pace to be ready to pounce at the end. Only caveat is if the rain comes and is bottomless. Odds tell us this is expected to win.
ENTENTE: Another on pace runner and has been in similar races to Warning and will be right on the pace so if we love Warning, we must find space for Entente! Has got Waterhouse fitness and could well be the last one standing.
PURRFECT DEAL: Grossly overlooked for ours. Awesome record. Win in Grafton was top class in a listed race and has an awesome strike rate and is a lightly raced horse. Will be even better later but expect a dynamic run today aided by the fact will sit up on pace in a race which we think will be harder to make ground from behind.
LUNCIES: Found Group one a bit hot last start and ran into trouble. We thought it was a good run in a race it was never going to win. What we call a disguise run. Bowman takes the ride and form around it is good enough to win. Huge combination of great win strike rate and lightly raced. Might be great in Autumn too. A bit like Purrfect Deal and maybe a long neck behind it at this stage.
Good Punting and Good Luck!
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