We are looking outside the square a bit today. Most meetings at the moment are consolation events for those that failed in the big ones and we are not in the habit of supporting them.
We have decided on Newcastle Race 6 because we have been keeping our eye on an exciting horse, we think could be a huge Spring or Autumn campaigner, especially if it gets good tracks. So far, our thinking has given us all a great profit so we aim to increase it on Saturday.
3 NAMAZU (3 Units)
5 SHADDY (2 Units)
7 HIGH SUPREMACY (1 unit)
6 THE ELANORA (1 unit)
NAMAZU has been on our radar since his qualifying run for this race. Well for us anyway. Its first ever run was an awesome effort over 1400. Did a lot wrong and just woke up to what racing is about to just go under in a strong form race. Second up on an unsuitable venue but good conditions won well with Rachel King. Then last start in Sydney we wonder what she was thinking trying to get better ground by losing ten lengths to gain less. The horse was a mile back because it doesn’t like the ground and it was never winning in our opinion even though we backed it. We hate criticising jockeys as it is such a tough game, and we are big fans of Rachel, but she seems to be riding with not a lot of confidence at the moment and we think the engagement of James McDonald is a huge positive.
SHADDY looks like it has been set for this race. First up was strong over 1200. Next run was equally impressive. Up in distance won’t hurt and we think last start in the lead or thereabouts was a disguise run. Loves good tracks. Bullock is a top rider and suits it. Our only niggle is it is still eligible for a class 1! But the trainer obviously thinks is good enough and we are not here to dispute that. Apart from the little niggle, would be very close to top rated.
HIGH SUPREMACY is another that we took its first race start as a qualifying run. Kembla is a tough track to win on. It seems it can run just off the pace which is what we would expect and could finish over them. Likes good tracks and the jockey change speaks volumes. Downside is like the previous horse has finished behind Shaddy.
THE ELANORA is a real knockout horse for us. The difference between its first up run and the way it took the gap in its last run shows what a game horse it has become. We also love the way it has gone from 1400 to 1800 and now back to the distance it was set for. The form around its 2nd last start has ben amazing so we are happy to include it as a great chance.
We have some reservations about the top weight. Huge run on poor conditions and every year there is a jockey that has a claim that gets nearly all the rides. Last year was Tom Marquand and this year is Tom Sherry. We have some breeding reservations, and we won’t claim it but standing the one out with our rated horses is what we are doing. Given the odds we are happy we can make a good profit which is what we are about.
Good luck if you're having a flutter, and as always: please gamble responsibly.