Poor run last week from our horses. It’s rare, but it does happen, unfortunately. We will write an article about it during the week. As mentioned, a couple of weeks back, we prefer longer races but due to the time of the season, we have a week or so to go before we get better distances for us.
So, we had to go to the home of some of our most avid subscribers. To NZ, race 7 at Te Rapa. Fascinating race this. Most of these are headed to the Oaks or Derby so they would want to run well here. There are a few try hards in this, as some trainers think their horse needs more distance. If it is a slug at 1400 it won’t be any quicker over 2400. They don’t need more ground they need more speed. So, it is easy to eliminate some of the suspect ones very quickly. We think here are few genuine chances in this. We think the favourite has a hope but is hopelessly under the odds so we will leave it out as a win bet.
We have them in order of:
2 NEEDLE AND THREAD 2 Units
3 IL AFFARE 2 Units
8 CANUHANDLEAJANDAL 1 Unit
9 SWEET ANNA 1 Unit
NEEDLE AND THREAD was an outstanding run last start leads and keeps going. Our type of horse. Was super impressive last start in a massive form race. Handles track distance and looks like an up and coming horse for the spring carnival next year. Way under the odds at 5.5
IL AFFARE was our subscriber bet of the day last start and the run was enormous. Was entitled to throw it away. Another race where we think they were trying but a hard fitness run was the main objective. A fast strong young up and comer. Has been racing in weaker but could surprise at good odds.
CANUHANDLEAJANDAL Beats us why you would name your horse that. Anyway, the horse had had 2 runs at the distance and is certainly fit enough. More likely to run a better 2400 trip but can certainly win here.
SWEET ANNA - Only query about this one is whether it can handle the state of the track. Seems to like the sting out more. Form around her is okay. Must include it because of the distance.
The top weight and favourite is a sound horse, but we think is at laughable odds. By leaving it out we can get a lot back for not much out. As usual we have got a leader a couple that will sit handy and two back markers.
We would hope they show a bit of initiative on Il Affare and ride it out of the barriers instead of doing nothing. You need everything to go your way if you are last all the way but as the tired ones drop back, we think Il Afare will be ready to pounce. We do think it will be only bad luck if our top two don’t fight it out. We are on Il Afare to win the derby at 30 which we got earlier. It is now into tens.
Good luck, and happy punting!
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