Hi again, Happy New Year to everyone!
There's been a massive amount of racing over the Holidays but very little quality or value so we have been quietly waiting for the right race and we think we have found it in R6 at Flemington in the Lexus Stakes.
We have them in order of :
5 PANCHO 3 units
9 MUSHAIREB 2 units
1 PACODALI 1 unit
4 DEFIBRILLATE 3 units
3 MOSH MUSIC Stand out In exacta. 0.25 unit
PANCHO looks an ideal type for a race like this. Positive jockey change. Can be ridden quietly just off the pace and run over them at the end From around it is excellent and better than the rest of the field with the exception of MUSHAIREB. Only query in this race is the pace or lack of it but can be positioned close enough so it shouldn’t matter.
MUSHAIREB is an interesting horse. Has been hype horse now the public have dropped off is paying big overs for ours. Likely to set the pace and Michael Walker is an excellent judge of pace . Should get the front easily if it wants it. If gets the run we expect, will be extremely hard to run down. The others will have to come home with a massive turn of foot, and we don’t see they have it. Last start run was enormous on soft track.
PACODALI could get a great run here. Its run a couple back at Ballarat was a high rating run and we expect it to repeat. We love the trainer, but an interesting choice of rider. Likely to be just off the pace and we hope storm over them. Great value this one.
DEFIBRILLATE. This is likely to get back and run home hard. Is being set for Adelaide Cup, well so they say! We think it is sharp enough to be in the Australian Cup. If it is going to the Adelaide Cup, then it would be a bit off the pace here but would be strong late. Not willing to have it run against us. Exciting prospect.
MOSH MUSIC is another that interests us. Very lightly raced and promises much but our concern is that it seems better at turning circuits although has won here before in weaker grade. Form around it is just okay. Trainer and Jockey way below normal averages. Horse looks like it might have something wrong with it maybe hasn’t come up after long spell? Form around it is ordinary unless you go back 18 months to its Flemington win. Enough niggles there to encourage us to leave it out of our top 4 think it is well under the odds but has enough intrigue for it to make us eat humble pie.
We think it is worth saving on in Form of quinella with the others or as standout exacta with the others for 0.25 units total.
So, we have 2 on pacers 2 from behind and A leader just as we like it. We have priced to win whichever of the horses wins
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