We are disappointed by the track conditions and the rail out across the country This is a tricky time of year to bet but we think we have found a race we are confident enough to have an attempt to win again.
This week we are not staking much but we think the SA Derby - Morphettville Race 7 - is a race of limited hopes as we think it is a very weak line up. To be honest, there aren’t too many brilliant 3YO’s running around at the moment we think that playing favourites is a risk. So we are betting around it. This race is a consolation for many or a trial to see if they will make the grade in Spring.
There is some value here. Most of these will run out of puff at the 300. And there are a few horses who can make the pace so should be good speed on and no excuses. We have left the favourite Explosive Jack out. It may make us look silly but we think it showed signs of having enough. Can’t argue with its form at all, but they want it to race in Brisbane as well after this. That is a lot of work for a 3yo. We also think it may find it harder to pick up from the rear at Morphetville and the track conditions. Plus, it isn’t paying enough for us. If the odds get out, we may stand it out in quinellas.
We have them is order of:
6 - DEEPSTRIKE - 2 units
4 - LETS KARAKA DEEL - 1 unit
2 - ROYAL MILE - 1 unit
3 - LIQUERO - 3 units
DEEPSTRIKE has an excellent record and is coming into this with only three starts this campaign. Is fresh and a genuine Group horse with a good turn of foot. If it can settle a bit closer, it will be too strong at the end. Has had some back luck and impeded running but should jump well and be a lot closer in the run, than most think. A bit too good we think.
LET’S KARAKA DEEL had a great run in the Victorian Derby. Should get across easily from the barrier and be in a perfect position on the run. Quicker than most of these and a positive jockey change should have it going very close. Has more potential than most of these, so if it doesn’t win put in the book for later and maybe the spring. Should winter it in Queensland and will be even better in the new season.
ROYAL MILE is amazing odds. What an honest animal. We love to see horses like this. Usually underestimated and they keep turning up at odds. Has beaten a lot of the horses in the field already including Lets Krakka Deel. The thing we like is it races on the pace or can lead. Will be there at the end.
LIQUERO is drawn to get a perfect run just off the pace. Form from Melbourne we think is stronger than Sydney and the form around it is excellent. Loves the conditions and has impeccable record a and is another that can race handy. And those are the ones we want. Likely to be just off them in the run and we are looking forward to the finish.
For savers at good odds in case there is a calamity in the run.
We quite like 7 MILETUS as has been victim of buffering and some rough races and form around it is good and the same may be said for MONTEPULCIANO . Bet these for .25 of a unit only.
Make sure youre following @ppracingtips on Twitter for more expert racing tips and analysis. Please gameble responsibly!