Hi again, punters!
We’ve found a race that we really like in Sydney - Rosehill. We have our bases covered in the race and we think there’s a chance of an upset result. Race two over 2000m, a poor Grp 3 if ever we have seen one, has a hot favourite in Master of War and long term subscribers will know we had an opinion of this horse, but we aren’t so sure of it here. We think the leaders will have it between them and those that come from a way back will have too much to do. At the end of the day MOW simply isn’t quick enough and needs the race run to suit. Also needs it firm, so too many things need to go right. Better next campaign over longer where dourness is better than speed. At 2.7 we have no interest other than a possible multiple standout.
We have them in order of:
5 Looks Like Elvis - 3 units
3 Shared Ambition - 3 units
4 Mr Satchmo - 0.1 units
7 Avions Fury - 0.1 units
SHARED AMBITION looks like a group 3 horse where most of the others don’t. We think it is a better Sydney horse and a likely improver this way of going and wouldn’t need to improve much to beat this lot. First up run was enormous and showed heaps of courage. Unlucky in Melbourne and we don’t think the jockey suited. James McDonald’s now back on. Sits just off the pace and should run over them late if the race pace is right.
LOOKS LIKE ELVIS is a horse that is coming into its own. Not over raced and can lead or sit off Entente. Won’t do any work off inside barrier and could skip clear and be too hard to get past. Unlike many, we don’t mind the step up to the 2000 from 1500 for LLE. It has done a lot of work and the more relaxed rhythm of 2000 will be ideal. Huge chance for us.
Entente will call it a day before the end. Group winners don’t have Albury races as lead up runs.
We went looking for the most likely other horses and they were hard to find. The get back horses have ordinary late speed for this type of race. The surrounding form is dreadful, and they will get too far back so our knockout horse needs to be at good odds.
MR SATCHMO If it has adapted to Australian racing would be a chance in this at its best. Forget first run this campaign as nothing went right. Barrier trial was good subsequently and has excellent 2 up form. At 126 you don’t need a lot on! Tom Marquand doesn’t have to ride 100/1 shots so we think it might have a hope.
We like Avions Fury for the reason that it has faster closing speed than most of the other get back horses including MOW so if the track is favouring run on horses then this one has a lot better hope than the market credits it with.
So, we have 2 on pacers 2 that come from further back, just as we like it. No need to risk a lot to make a good percentage here.
It would annoy us if MOW got up! We think it is more a dour animal than we first thought and needs too much to go its way. Runs against very elegant were good without being black bookers, and we think it was dragged along by the race quality. We could end up with egg on our face, but we won’t make money betting on horses with queries around it at 2.7!