We haven’t been impressed with the quality of racing so much lately - a lot of horses that should have been retired and a lot of horses that will struggle to even win 2 career races. Wasn’t impressed with the Australian Cup either. Either the committee needs to be sacked or our stocks need replenishing. But the media keeps calling them superstars!? We only like to have big bets when we are sure we have the winner in our top 4 or 5 and we can cover each horse and make a good profit. Plus, we like good tracks and long straights and tough horses. We have lots of success on South African and European tracks for this reason. Sadly, they don’t come up all the time.
We have gone to NZ today which will please our Kiwi subscribers. We have chosen the Derby (Ellerslie Race 9) because we think there are few winning chances and the horse we backed earlier in the year, at 30/1, is the likely winner. We had it on top a few weeks ago on Trend Bettor and our opinion hasn’t changed.
We have them in order of
14 IL AFFARE 20s 2 Units not less than 12. (currently 18)
4 PERFECT SCENARIO 18s 1 unit not less than 15. (currently 18)
8 FRONTMAN 18s 1 unit not less than 15. (currently 18)
2 MONTRE MOI 3 units not less than $4. (Currently 4.2)
Totals units out 7 min units return at morning prices 12.
IL AFFARE - Now this is our horse. Last start was contrary to normal get back pattern and still ran an excellent race that was only entered for to have a fitness run. Is a strong late type of horse and the others will be feeling the pinch when she comes home hard down the outside. Has been a model of consistency but needs luck and the pace on. If she gets that wil, we believe it will win it. Only slight query is, has she been given a few too many runs in her first campaign? We don’t think so as she still looks a ball of muscle and is our top rated.
PERFECT SCENARIO We can see why other assessors are leaving this one alone and why it is big odds in the market. But you don’t make great money by following the crowd. Opie Bosson is riding, and Jamie Richards is training it. That alone should be a clue! Races handy so can sit just off the speed and fly home. Distances have increased gradually so it is still not been over raced and has stepped up each time it has gone up in distance of the ground. Dams sire is Savabeel so has a good staying line with a bit of speed. Many derbies are won by slightly precocious types so kept fresh with a master trainer and jockey it has a lot of appeal.
FRONTMAN Useful type that could be the surprise packet. Danielle Johnston picks up the mount, so the question is. Did Opie Bosson choose Perfect Scenario or was he given the boot from Frontman? Guess we’ll know at the end of the race. The lead up for Frontman has been very sound around some good horses so reluctant to leave it out. It is a readymade racehorse that won’t waste any energy and could bowl along at cheap sectionals and steal it.
MONTRE MOI Looks better placed over 1600 to 2000 to us. Has undoubted ability. We see why they have gone to the Derby, but we think this is a mile to 2000 m horse. May go close on raw ability. Liza Allpress has a positive ROI with the trainers so must give a chance but can’t have it on top.
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Good luck if you’re having a flutter, and as always, please gamble responsibly!