Poor track conditions and rails out nearer the grandstand mean extreme caution is needed. So, we have gone to Brisbane where it is warm, and the tracks are good. Rail out 1 metre will be no issue and we have settled on the Ipswich Cup, as we think our deeper analysis has given us one at odds.
An open race for us with few real chances. Seems a bit weak for a listed race, more like a run of the mill Saturday Sydney Handicap, so should give a few a better chance than they might have otherwise would have.
We have them in order of:
13 TRADUCE 1 units @ 15 or better
1 INVERLOCH 1 unit @ 12 or better
2 SO YOU WIN 2 units @ 4 or better
7 HUMBOLD CURRENT 1 unit @ 8 or better
TRADUCE The biggest question for us is can it rise from B78 to listed company? We don’t think this is a vintage field and are prepared to put it on top since the distance is ideal, the jockey has great record with it and its last run was just a sharpener. Training lead up has been superb and is lightly raced with fabulous record at the distance. Can step up here.
INVERLOCH has been an enigma horse but will appreciate the warmth and on best form would be the winner. Likely lead or sit just off them and we think it has more class than most of these and really the markets have it a 12s which is way overs for us. Suited by the distance and the last run was just a get fit run for this race. Top hope.
SO YOU WIN Is stepping up to a distance first time this campaign and has an excellent 3rd up record. Has a bit of class but a bit of a query on a good track at this level. Has fast closing speed though so must go in.
HUMBOLT CURRENT is another that has the same form lines as the as many of these and has Craig Williams riding in peak form.
Over the odds at eights.
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