Just a quick note about last week. We gave a few horses out in case the track deteriorated. In the end there were only two we bet on and made money ourselves by betting more than the half unit on the top weight as we could see it was well suited with the way the track was playing. In future we won’t make selections on tracks that could deteriorate as we don’t expect everyone to be a professional and make those decisions. Our apologies, but even so, the maximum anyone could have lost was around 4 units, and we are here for the long haul.
We have an aversion to the rail being out and noticeably short straights we bet on tough animals, jockeys, and trainers.
Rather than go for the big races that have genuine 4/5 chances in them we settled on Gold Coast R3. We think the favourite has a slight query on it, so we have rated them in this order.
4 BARGANNON (2)
Our thoughts are that this horse is lightly raced and has 28 days of after a few hard runs following a long spell. Form around it is great and if it doesn’t win this time make it an HTF as will win within two starts. Unsure if Maloney is retained to get a feel for its next run or this is it. Jockey and trainer have great affinity, so we suspect the latter. Happy to have a full unit on his one.
6 RUN FOR GLORY (4)
No real knock on this one but just feel it might not be a Gold Coast horse. At $1.65 prepared to take on. Has good form lines not quite as good as our top rated but very sound. Not sure if Doomben is a realistic benchmark and flattered by the way the track was playing. That said its best run was when it ran right on the pace with the long Caloundra straight. Prepared to risk as not confident on Jockey although was good in Adelaide is only running 5% recently so big query that. Couldn’t have at the odds with the queries we have around it.
5 TARBERT (7)
Lightly raced again, especially for an 8 yo. Better on pace we feel and hopefully the Fav will set it up for this. Form around it okay, so happy to bet on it. But not with the same confidence.as the top rated. Course distance are excellent Form around it not as good as the others. Jockey and trainer both okay without making the high notes. Half a unit.
3 PRORITISE (1)
Prioritise would not surprise first up, especially if the pace is hot. Middle distance horses can often spring a great first up run over 1400. Would do no work from the gate and run home late. We would only take it in multiples, as it is more speculative, based on our knowledge rather than statistics.
Good luck if you're having a punt. And as always, please gamble responsibly.