This weekend has been incredibly open and difficult to settle on a race we would bet with confidence in. Our bet today was going to be our scratched horse from the last post but has been scratched again.
We settled on Devonport R4 As our race today. Not because we are certain, but it does offer great value and will show how we go about analysing races.
In Order we have them
- 13 Sheorta
- 9 Lucky Lil
- 8 Kay EL
- 6 Havana Deejay
Sheorta is a good example of how to prepare a horse for a race from the start of its campaign. Sheorta is well suited to 1600 and has had 5 runs to get it fit. Like horses stepping up in distance and McCoull is back on which we think is significant. At 8 Dollars we think it is worth the risk. 1 Unit
Lucky Lil was a good run last start at a similar distance and wasn’t suited by the way the track played. David Piries rides again so is a definite danger and no shock to see it win well. At $4 we are happy to be on. 1 Unit
Kal El Dropped back sharply in distance and they don’t win when that happens, so it was a run for something else. The challenge is, was the run for this race, or are they doing a couple of 1600 runs before stepping back up to a target race. On its run 5 starts ago at Pakenham we are prepared to go for this race. Jockey is well suited. Has been racing better horses in Melbourne. $26 so has to go in. 0.5 Units
Havana Deejay is another at odds. Suited by the distance our query is it this start or next? Up in distance no trouble but not sure if fit enough but its last start short speed burst looked intentional to us so no surprise to see improve sharply. Interesting to see David Pires is off. Georgina Catania is down on form a bit but is a capable rider. Whether the stable are disguising their intentions, or it is as it seems, at the odds is easy to put in. 0.5 Units.
We would box the 4 in quinellas as well for a potential large return.
Have a great day, and good luck if you're having a punt!
Total units staked – 3.5.