It's a poor betting day today. We prefer long straights, middle distances, good tracks, and tough horses. That’s where we make our money.
We bet on the same horses we give out. Occasionally we notice something in the yard and adjust our bet but still the same horses, just bet size alters if anything.
We know we get results on our normal races and we average 64 percent on the rated horses over every rated race during the year. We work the averages, and it works for us. When we see one of our top races that has everything in our favour. We load up .It’s worth the risk. We won’t select the race unless our odds are good enough and we think the favourite is a risk, or at a decent price. When you single out just one race the odds are not in your favour so you have to do a lot of work and even then, lady luck may not be with you that day.
The last couple of weeks with our good races have been good runs without getting a result. Last week, our horses ran 3rd and 4th at 15s but there was 20 available earlier. Good effort but no money. Our top rated was well ridden but just could ping. It happens when you single out just one race.
Still, we are well ahead since writing previews for The Trend Bettor, and we thought as we were finalising our selections that we would let everyone know that two of our selections over the last few weeks are in again and we feel they have good chances in wide open fields. Moonee Valley is not a track we personally bet on. The All Star Mile is a case in point. 14 horses going around, Small track, short straight, The most important factor at this track and race is luck. Which is why we are letting you know of our two follow up horses. All they need is some luck to be right in the finish. Even though they didn’t make our top four they were mighty close and worth a unit.
The horses we are referring to are in All Star Mile R8 at Moonee Valley.
Firstly, the Top Weight Sir Dragonet. Thought he would walk in first up and we were surprised as anyone when it ran very averagely! The jockey said it raced dour. Well, that doesn’t tell us much we could see that! When we dug deeper, they had glue on shoes last start. That tells us it was not meant to win. Lo and behold they are off this weekend! If there was sting out of the ground it would shake the life out of this. As it is, we think it will go very close with some luck.
Our other horse to follow up on is Mr Quickie that we got some exceptionally good money out of, a couple of starts back. We posted it here. We like it behind a fast pace at 1600. From barrier 13 if Jamie Kah can it across with some cover, it should peel off them and may just lay them to waste. It can win at 2000, but needs everything to go his way. That’s why it didn’t start in the Australian Cup. And the same applies to Sir Dragonet.
There are some good horses in the race. Some are a bit overrated but at the odds, these two are well worth having in the Quaddie and we are having a unit on each of them. Not a race to go berserk in, but at the odds we can get the last two weeks losses back, for a couple of units, it is an easy bet for us. We will also take them in an Exacta as well. But that is just us. Remember we don’t normally bet in these races, but it is the sort of race a roughie can bob up in and they will need luck. Also, it would annoy us if they won without us!!
Good Luck and Joyful Punting.
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