NFL - Week 9

Raiders @ Chargers

  • 17 of the 23 Chargers games since 2019, have been decided by 7 points or less (73.91%)

  • Most in the league

  • 19 of the 23 Chargers games since 2019, have been decided by 10 points or less (82.61%)

  • 11 of 23 for the Raiders games have been decided by 7 points or less (47.83%)

  • 15 of 23 decided by 10 points or less (65.22%)

  • Derek Carr has faced the Chargers 12 time in his career, 8 of them have been decided by 7 points or less.

  • Another reason why I love this bet between these two teams show a lack of ability to win by large margins.

  • 10 of the Raiders 15 wins since Gruden took over (again) in 2018, have been by 7 points or less

  • Picking up right where we left off last week…

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.78 (Pointsbet)


Bears @ Titans

  • 10 of the Titans 12 home games since 2019, have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Titans are 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS in these games

  • 10 of the Bears 12 road games since 2019, have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Bears are 7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS in these games

  • Model says: Titans -0.5

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.81 (Pointsbet)


Giants @ Washington

  • Giants are 0-3 SU, 3-0 ATS in road games this season

  • Losses by 4, 3, and 1

  • 9 of the Giants 11 road games since 2019 have been decided by 7 points or less

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 7.5 Points @ $2.00 (Pointsbet)


Seahawks @ Bills

  • Both teams have scored 25+ points in 6 of Seattle’s 7 games

  • Most in the league

  • Both team have scored 25+ points in 2 of Buffalo’s 8 games

  • Tied-11th

Recommended Bets: 1 Unit – Both Teams to Score 25+ @ $2.70 (Sportsbet)


Dolphins @ Cardinals

  • No trends in this game

  • Model says: Line should be -4.7 (Number considers 6 games with Fitzpatrick, 1 game with Tua)

  • We have Fitzpatrick rated higher than Tua

  • Despite beating the Rams, the Dolphins were outgained 471-145 yards. Helped by 4 turnovers, and 2 D/ST touchdowns, this was a historical win for the Dolphins. One that is not sustainable. I think the market is distracted by the 28-17 win, and not the on the “way” the game was won. Assuming TO +/- is 0, and defensive touchdowns aren’t scored, this should be a comfortable win for the Cardinals

  • Actually DOWN graded Dolphins from last week after their win vs the Rams.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Cardinals -4.5 @ $2 (Topsport)


Lions @ Vikings

  • Vikings are 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS against the Lions since Matt Patricia took over Detroit

  • Wins of 15, 18, 12, 13

  • Model says: Vikings -7.67

  • Don’t like that the Vikings will be a little bit more expensive after their win against the Packers, but I still think there’s value here considering the head to head match up, the model, and the motivation of keeping the season alive. I don’t see this being a flat spot in a divisional game.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Vikings -4 @ $1.92 (Topsport) ($2 on Topsport Promo)

Player Props - 1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (unless stated otherwise)


1.5 Units - J.D McKissic (Washington) Over 18.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

  • McKissic has the third most targets, and receptions for Washington in 2020

  • 37, 40, 46, 43, and 16 receiving yards in last 5 games

  • Giants concede the 4th most receiving yards to RB’s this season (50.4 ypg)

  • McKissic will fight with Gibson for reps, but I’ll back both of them to get opportunities, but I’m favouring the 3rd down back in McKissic who should be in more passing opportunities than his counterpart.

Marvin Jones (Lions) @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

  • Jones has the most Red Zone targets for the Lions

  • With Kenny Golladay out, Jones chances increase quite a bit.

  • Vikings concede the most touchdowns to WR’s in the league

1 Unit on BOTH – Cole Beasley Over 48.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet) + Anytime TD @ $2.88 (Sportsbet)

  • Beasley has the 2nd most targets, receptions, yards, and receiving TD’s for the Bills, in both total and Red Zone counts

  • Seahawks concede the most catches and yards to slot receivers in the league.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

  • I don’t love the addition to Bell to the RB committee, for this bet, but I’m going with the starting RB against the Panthers side who concede the 3rd most TD’s to RB’s in the league in 2020, and conceded the most (27) in 2019.

0.5 Units on BOTH – Noah Fant @ $3.20 (Sportsbet) & Albert Okwuegbunam @ $4.50 (Sportsbet)

  • These two lead Red Zone targets for the Broncos

  • Falcons concede the tied-most TD’s to TE’s in the league (1.0)

Darren Fells (Texans) @ $5 (Sportsbet)

  • Darren Fells has the second most receiving touchdowns for the Texans with 3

  • Jags concede the tied-most TD’s to TE’s in the league (1.0)

Ladbrokes haven’t put up their TD markets yet. It may be worth looking there when they do as they offer some pretty nice odds for this market. Unfortunately, I cannot wait, as I won’t be able to post later.

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Odds are correct as of 12:20 – 8th of November 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.


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