NFL - Week 8

Intro Notes: Make sure you check the weather around the league for this weekend before placing your bets – especially totals. Raiders @ Browns total is 49, and the Over would’ve been an absolute “smash job” if it weren’t for the 45f, rain and wind that’s predicted for the game. At least 4 or 5 games will be rain/weather affected.


Colts @ Lions

  • 17 of the Lions 23 games since 2019 have been decided by 10 points or less (73.91%)

  • Tied-Third highest in the league

  • 4 of 6 games this season

  • 15 of the 22 Colts games since 2019 have been decided by 10 points or less (68.18%)

  • Tied-Ninth

  • 4 of 6 games this season

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.72 (Pointsbet)


Steelers @ Ravens

  • John Harbaugh has coached against Mike Tomlin on 27 occasions. 19 (70.37%) have been decided by 7 points or less

  • 14 of Pittsburgh’s 22 (63.63%) games since 2019 have been decided by 7 points or less

  • Tied-4th most in the league

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.14 (Pointsbet)


Titans @ Bengals

  • Warning: Although there no rain predicted for this game, 17mph winds is discouraging. But I still think this number is too low.

  • Over is 4-1-1 in Titans games this season

  • Average 56.83, Median 59.5

  • Over is 4-3 in Bengals games this season

  • Average 51, Median 58

  • Model says: 55 Total Points Scored

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 50.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.95 (Topsport)


Chargers @ Broncos

  • Note: ETU isn’t an intentional focus this week, that’s just how the chips have fallen this week

  • Broncos won their two matchups against Chargers last season

  • 7, and 3 points

  • 16 of Chargers 22 games (72.72%) have been decided by 7 points or less since 2019

  • Most in the league

  • 8 of the last 10 Chargers divisional games have been decided by 7 points

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.05 (Pointsbet)


49ers @ Seahawks

  • I promise you… it’s not intentional

  • 17 of Seattle’s 22 games since 2019 have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Tied-Third most in the league

  • 7 of 8 49ers Divisional games since 2018 have been decided by 10 points or less

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.75 (Pointsbet)


Saints @ Bears

  • Right, for those who have read throughout the 2020 season, will know that we think the Saints are still vastly overrated in this league, and that the market is slow to react as they are still thinking that this team is the Saints of the past. Let me give you another example. On MNF, the Bears were +6 @ the Rams. We’ll never be able to properly quantify home-field advantage but let’s consider it to be 1.5 points in this COVID-riddled year – normally Home-Field is worth around 3 points – but let’s say 1.5 for this argument. Last week’s line of +6.0 (minus 1.5) means the Rams are 4.5 points better than the Bears. Regardless if whether you think that’s right or wrong, the Bears are +4.5 against the Saints… AT HOME. Meaning that the Saints are 6 points better than the Bears, and, more to my point... 1.5 points better than the Rams. I find this extremely hard to believe, making the Bears the value play here.

  • 19 of 23 (82.61%) Bears games since 2019 have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Most in the league

  • Saints have 14 (Tied 11th)

  • Bears are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS as home underdogs under Matt Nagy

  • Model says: Saints by 1 point.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.08 (Pointsbet)

- 0.5 Units – Bears win @ $2.85 (Topsport)

Player Props – (1 Unit Anytime Touchdown Scorer unless stated otherwise)


2 Units - LeVeon Bell (Chiefs) @ $2.20 (Bet365)

- Only 6 teams have conceded more TD’s to Running Backs in 2020 than the Jets

- Bell vs the Jets (you can make the link) in a game where his team are 20-point favourites? Yes please…


1 Unit – Tyler Boyd (Bengals) Over 64.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet) / 0.5 Units Anytime TD @ $3.10 (Sportsbet)

- Titans concede the 5th most yards to Wide Receivers (194.8pg) in the league

- Titans concede the 7th most Touchdowns to Wide Receivers (1.5pg) in the league

- Boyd had 21% target share, and 20% in the End Zone


Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) @ $3 (Pointsbet)

- Has scored 3 TD’s in 6 games

- Seahawks concede the 3rd most touchdowns to Wide Receivers in the league (1.7 pg)

- Aiyuk leads the team in red zone targets, and 2nd in team targets

- Lookout for a WR end-around in the Red Zone, too.


1.5 Units - Jonnu Smith (Titans) @ $3.10 (Pointsbet) / 0.5 Units Anthony Firkser TD @ $8 (Bet365)

- Bengals concede the tied-2nd most touchdowns to Tight Ends in the league (1.0 pg)

- Jonnu Smith leads Red Zone targets for the Titans with 8 – 25% target share, 5 TD’s


Jimmy Graham (Bears) @ $3.15 (Ladbrokes)

- Saints concede the tied-2nd most touchdowns to Tight Ends in the league (1.0 pg)

- Graham leads the league in Red Zone targets, receptions, and touchdowns


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Odds are correct as of 14:20 – 1st of November 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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