Patriots @ Chargers
- I really like the Chargers to win this game – that I am confident of. But I’m not too keen to lay 4.5 in what I believe could be a relatively low scoring game.
- Patriots losing margins this season = -1, -15, -2, -6
- Chargers winning margins this season = +4, +6, +14, +5
- Model says: Chargers by 7
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chargers by 1-18 @ $2.05 (Sportsbet SGM)
Panthers @ Falcons
- Fuck… here we go again. This is the last straw, I promise, on the Panthers.
- Stick with me here. The Panthers have laid an egg in each of their last 4 games (and we’ve been on 3 of them). So why the hell would anyone want to back them? There, that question there is exactly why.
- After 4 rough weeks, the market has officially jumped off the Panthers wagon, there’s no one left. Last week the Panthers were -3 on the road at the Giants, and now they’re +3 on the road at the Falcons. Now, I ask you this question. If the Giants and Falcons played on a neutral field, would the line be around 6? No chance. This is the week that the market has dipped on the Panthers, making them a great cheap buy at the moment.
- Now they just have to rock up…
- Panthers have been a great road team to bet on under Matt Rhule, going 4-7 SU, 8-3 ATS since 2020
- Model says: Panthers by 4
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Panthers +3 @ $1.96 (TopSport)
Titans @ Colts
- The Titans opened -1 and have gone out all the way to +2.5/+3, and I don’t really understand it. Julio has been listed as out, but that’s not exactly new nor worth moving the needle almost 4 points.
- Titans have been a great underdog bet under Ryan Tannehill, going 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS since his first start.
- This is only the 2nd time that the Colts have been favourites this season – the markets high.
- Model says: Titans by 3
Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Titans +3 @ $1.86 (Sportsbet)
To win both halves
- I don’t actively go looking for this market too often – I need a few things to tick off:
o Big favourites who I expect to win
o Underdog doesn’t have a great passing game, and favourite has BOTH a very good offence AND defence.
o At least two teams fit that mould this weekend – Bills and Rams
- In 3 of the last 4 games between the Bills and Dolphins, the Bills have won both halves.
- Bills have won both halves in 4 of their 6 games this season
- Texans have lost both halves in 5 of their 7 games this season
- Rams have won both halves in 4 of their 7 games this season
- 1.25 Units – Bills @ $2.10 (Bet365)
- 1.5 Units – Rams @ $1.86 (Bet365)
Washington @ Broncos
- Similar spot to the Chargers selection. Gun to head, I like the Broncos to win, and cover here. But with the Broncos unable to blow out teams (have only won a game by more than 17 points under Vic Fangio – from 15 wins in total), I believe its more likely that the Broncos will win by 1-3 than it is by more than 18.
- Since 2020, Washington are 4-13 SU, 7-9-1 ATS as underdogs
o 12 of the 17 games have resulted in a 1-18 loss
- Model says: Broncos by 7
Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Broncos by 1-18 @ $1.95 (Sportsbet SGM)
Added Model Play: 1 Unit – Lions +3.5 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)
-- Player Props --
1.5 Units - Teddy Bridgewater over 249.5 passing yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Bridgewater median passing yards this season = 264
- Washington concede the third most passing yards in 2021 (311.1 average)
- Washington have conceded 249+ passing yards in all 7 of their games
1.25 Units - Carson Wentz over 245.5 passing yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
- Median is only 228 this season, but if you ignore two outlier games: one where Wentz played with two injured ankles vs the Titans in Week 3, and the Week 7 clash played on Noah’s Ark, his median is 247, which I believe is a truer reflection.
- Titans concede 291 passing yards a game - 7th most in the league – and have allowed 245+ in 6 of their 7 games.
1.25 Units – Joe Mixon TD @ $2.10 (Sportsbet/TAB)
- Mixon has scored in 5 of 7 games this season, including in each of the last 4
- Jets concede the most touchdowns to RB’s in 2021 (1.9 per game)
1 Unit - Alvin Kamara under 56.5 rush yards + over 44.5 receiving yards @ $3.50 (Sportsbet SGM)
- Tampa Bay concede 51.3 rushing yards, and 50.3 receiving yards to RB’s this season. - This +1.0 difference is the smallest in the league.
- This is a perfect spot for a top-10 (statistically speaking) receiving Back like Kamara
1.25 Unit - Alex Collins TD @ $2.25 (Ladbrokes)
- Alex Collins has had games of 10+ rushes in 4 games this season, he has scored in 2.
- This will be the worst D he’s faced in this time, as the Jags have conceded the 4th most touchdowns to RB’s this season (9)
- Since Chris Carson went down injured, no Seahawks RB has had a carry in the red zone apart from Collins.
- Collins is listed as questionable, so there may be a chance that this is void. But if he plays, I like the bet.
1.25 Unit - Zack Moss TD @ $2.37 (Bet365)
- Since Week 3, Moss has out-carried Singletary 14-4 in the Red Zone.
- Moss has scored in 3 of his 5 games this season
- Dolphins have conceded the 3rd most touchdowns to RB’s this season (10)
- Big favourites, at home, the ball will be a little slippery. I don’t like staking too much on Moss due to the fact that the Bills sometimes just refuse to punch it in deep in the red zone, but I don’t think you’ll ever get a better spot than this one.
1.25 Units - James Robinson over 95.5 rush + receiving yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Has achieved this in 3 of his last 4 games (134, 76, 147, and 101)
- Seahawks concede the 2nd most total yards to RB’s (182 yards per game)
1.25 Units – Jakobi Meyers Under 56.6 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)
- Meyers has gone under this number in 5 of his 7 games
- Chargers concede the least receiving yards to WR’s in the league (110.5)
1 Unit - D’Andre Swift over 99.5 Rush/Rec Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Swift’s median rush/rec yards in 2021 is 104
- Eagles concede the third most rush/rec yards to RB’s in 2021 (166.8 per game)
1 Unit - DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 receiving yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet) 0.25 Units – Smith 100+ @ $4.50 (Sportsbet)
- Smith’s median yards is 61 this season
- Great matchup here with #1 receivers going bananas against the Lions:
o Deebo Damuel 9-189-1
o Davante Adams 8-121-0
o Justin Jefferson 7-124-0
o Ja’Marr Chase 4-97-0
o Kupp 10-156-2
Odds are correct as of 12:10 - Sunday 31st October 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.