Steelers @ Titans
4 of Tennessee’s 5 games, this season, have been decided by 7 points or less
3rd highest % (80%)
13 of Pittsburgh’s 18 games have been decided by 7 points or less since 2019
5th highest % (72.22%)
8 of Tennessee’s 11 home games have been decided by 7 points or less since 2019
Tied-2nd most in the league
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 7.5 Points @ $2.26 (Pointsbet)
Panthers @ Saints
I don’t think the public have fully caught on to the Saints this year. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. This is a shadow of the 13-3 team we saw last season, and with Sanders and M Thomas out, as well as others with COVD, this line doesn’t make sense to me, as I have it at +3 even without factoring these.
Saints are 7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS as home favourites since 2019. With home crowds having very little impact, I like this bet even more.
- 1.25 Units – Panthers +7 @ $1.86 (Sportsbet)
- 0.5 Units – Panthers ML @ $3.45 (Topsport)
Packers @ Texans
Remember what I said last week regarding Houston’s new interim coach, Romeo Crennel, and (wisely) opening up the playbook to DeShaun Watson? Well, the Texans put up 36 points against the Titans… and lost. I don’t care about the team on a holistic level, this offence is clicking; scoring 30 and 36 in the two weeks since the firing of Bill O’Brien, who failed to score 25+ in the first 4 weeks.
I’m not too concerned about the Packers offence after laying an egg against a very talented Bucs D; dismiss it, forget it.
GB have the 4th highest offensive DSR% in the league.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 25+ Points @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)
Lions @ Falcons
A bit like the Texans, the Falcons came out throwing the ball a hell of a lot more after firing their head coach. Even when they had the lead, they still threw the ball. Last week, when the Falcons had a lead of 17+ points, they still threw 22 times (61% of plays)! The league average is 38% when leading by 17+. This aggressive playcalling should be admired, as they want to keep the foot on the jugular – take note LA Chargers, that’s how it should be done with a lead.
Head to Head trends are somewhat irrelevant as these two teams have played against each other just once since 2015. Falcons 30-26 in 2017
On the defensive side of the ball, Falcons have the 8th worst DSR, Lions 5th worst.
Over is 3-2 in Lions games this season
Average 55.2, Median 50, Min 49
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 54.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Chiefs @ Broncos
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Chiefs road games
Average 41.5, Median 42
Under is 4-0 in Chiefs divisional road games since 2019
Average 39.5, Median 39.5
Under is 4-2 in Broncos games as home underdogs under Vic Fangio
Average 36.67, Median 37, Max 43
Under is 5-1 in Broncos divisional games under Vic Fangio
Average 34.83, Median 34.5. Max 43
Note: Snow, high altitude, and predicted to be the windiest game of the round.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Under 44 @ $1.99 (Topsport)
49ers @ Patriots
Under is 13-8 in Patriots home games since 2018
Average 44.67, Median 41
This is more of a matchup play than anything else. Cast your mind back to week 3 when we bet Raiders Team Total Under 21 @ Patriots. The reasoning was simple. If you are a predictable offence – as the 49ers are with constant short passing and check downs – the Patriots will take that away and force you to beat them another way. Of qualifying QB’s, Jimmy Garappolo has the 2nd lowest intended air yards of the 32 QB’s – predictable. On top of that, Bill Belichick is familiar with Garoppolo. Predictable and familiar will be hard to score points with.
So why don’t I play the Patriots? Because I also don’t trust their offence either.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 45 @ $1.96 (Topsport)
Player Props (1 Unit – Anytime TD Scorer unless stated otherwise)
1.5 Units David Johnson (Texans) @ 1.83 (Sportsbet)
Packers concede the most TD’s to RB’s per game (1.8) in the league, this season.
David Johnson has had the 2nd most Red Zone touches in the last 2 weeks (9)
Ronald Jones (Bucs) @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)
- Raiders concede the 2nd most TD’s to RB’s per game (1.6) in the league, this season
- Playing 0.3u Fournette @ $4.60 (Ladbrokes) as well for a bit of insurance
0.5 Units Each - TJ Hockenson (Lions) Over 38.5 Rec Yards (Topsport) @ & Anytime TD @ $2.75 (Sportsbet)
Falcons have conceded the tied-most TD’s to TE’s this season (6)
And concede the 3rd most rec yards to TE’s (73)
Hockenson has cleared this number 3 times, as well as scored 3 TD’s this season
Hunter Henry (Chargers) @ $2.30 (Ladbrokes)
Jags have conceded the 5th most TD’s to TE’s this season (0.8pg)
Hunter Henry accounts for 20.83% of the team’s Red Zone targets, all of them being inside the 10 yard line.
0.75 Units - Zack Moss (Bills) 1+ TD @ $3.50 (Sportsbet), 0.2 Units – Moss 2+ TD’s @ $23 (TAB) 0.05 Units – Moss 3+ TD’s @ $201 (Sportsbet) 0.5 Units - Drew Sample (Bengals) Over 20.5 Rec Yards @ $2 (TAB) 0.5 Units – Sample 1+ TD @ $5.50 (Sportsbet)
I know I write about these two a lot (and with not much success admittedly), but they keep getting favourable matchups, too hard to ignore. I don’t like writing about them as much as you don’t like reading about them, so I’ve halved the pain by lumping them together
Moss was, in fact, the short yardage back last week vs the Chiefs, but unfortunately they just couldn’t find the end zone. Even though his price doesn’t reflect it, he’s in the right role to be scoring TD’s, he just needs some luck. Hopefully he can find some against the hapless Jets.
We’re back to where it all started with Drew Sample. Cast your mind back to week 2 when we (successfully) played CJ Uzomah to score a TD against the Browns. After he scored, and then got injured, Drew Sample stepped in and was targeted 9 times for 7 catches, 45 yards in effectively a quarter and a half. If he lays an egg, I’ll officially take off my Drew Sample tinted glasses off.
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Odds are correct as of 16:30 – 25/10/2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.