NFL Week 6 - MNF Double Header

Chiefs @ Bills

  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 Chiefs road games.

  • Average 41.2, Median 41

  • Model says 58 total points scored

  • Bills are 4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS as underdogs since 2019

  • All loses have been by 7 points or less

  • Under is 9-1 in these games

  • Average 32.5, Median 34

  • Again, if I was to play a total, it’s definitely the under,

  • If it wasn’t 2020, and crowds were allowed in at full capacity, I’d make the Under a big one, but even despite the high total (55.5), I’m keeping my on eye on the Bills abnormally loose defence, which has given up 31.25 points per game to teams that aren’t named the New York Jets, this season. So I am a little bit weary.

  • The Trend Bettor’s model says: total points scored = 58, confirming my doubts.

  • Chiefs are 9-1 SU in road games since 2019

  • Average result: +11.1 points

  • The Chiefs have conceded the 6th most RECEIVING yards to Running Backs this season (56.2)

  • David Johnson 32, Austin Ekeler 55, Joshua Kelley 49, JK Dobbins 38, James White 38, Jalen Richard 26

  • Devin Singletary averages 4.4 targets, 3.4 receptions, and 24.4 receiving yards a game this season. Having 20+ yards in 4 of his 5 games so far. I LOVE this play.

  • I don’t love the matchup with this - although Chiefs aren’t great against the run - only 6 teams average less touchdowns against RB’s than the Chiefs… BUT, with our cult hero Zack Moss expected to be back, I still think the bookies generally haven’t caught up to the fact that we should see Moss in goal line situations, where Singletary will be used more between the 20’s. In the first two weeks of the season – before Moss’ toe injury – he saw 8 Red Zone carries, to Singletary’s 4. Expect more of the same assuming Moss is active.

  • - Something extra: The Bills concede the most receptions, yards, and the 5th most touchdowns to Tight End’s. Boy… If only the Chiefs had a good Tight End on their roster…

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units – Devin Singletary Over 16.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)

- 0.75 Units – Zack Moss Anytime TD @ $4.10 (Ladbrokes)

- 0.25 Units– Zack Moss 2+ TD’s @ $23 (Ladbrokes)

- 0.5 Units – Travis Kelce 75+ yards & Anytime TD @ $2.75 (Pointsbet)


Unofficial Play (SGM): Chiefs win / Bills +17.5 / Under 71.5 Total / Kelce o77.5 yards / Kelce TD / Moss TD / Singletary over 17.5 rec yards @ $59 (Sportsbet SGM)

Cardinals @ Cowboys

  • The Cowboys, a proud organisation, are 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2016

  • This is only the third time that the Cardinals have been road favourites since 2017

  • They’re expensive in my opinion.

  • On the flip side, the Cowboys are cheap, being 0-5 ATS. No one wants to bet them.

  • No Andy Dalton is not as good as Dak Prescott, but you’ll be pretty hard pressed looking for a better back up in the league

  • When I initially wrote this (Sunday AEDT), the Cowboys were +1.5 underdogs, I think the value is now gone with them being favourites. If I were to bet a side though, it’s Cowboys or nothing.

  • Dallas against WR’s this season:

  • Robert Woods – 105 yards, 0 TD’s

  • Calvin Ridley – 109 yards, 2 TD’s

  • Tyler Lockett – 100 yards, 3 TD’s

  • DK Metcalf – 110 yards, 1 TD

  • Odell Beckham – 154 total yards, 3 total TD’s

  • Darius Slayton – 129 yards

  • DeAndre Hopkins leads the league in catches, and yards. Look out!

Recommended Bet:

1 Unit – DeAndre Hopkins 75+ yards & Anytime TD @ $3.01 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 02:20 – 20/10/2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.

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