NFL Week 6
Browns @ Steelers
- Browns are 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS in road games since 2019
o I’m aware they have a new coach this season, but they still have the same QB and similar roster
- Browns are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS in divisional road games with Baker Mayfield
o 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS at Steelers
- Steelers are 15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS as home favourites in divisional games since 2013
- Model also likes this play.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Steelers -3 @ $1.80 (Pointsbet/Ladbrokes)
Texans @ Titans
- Over is 13-4 in Titans games since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB
o Average 52.17, Median 54
- Model says Total points = 55, so I normally wouldn’t play this…
- BUT, one of the reasons why the Texans let go of HC Bill O’brien was due to his rigid play calling. Interim HC Romeo Crennel promised to sling it a little bit more, and the Texans scored their season highest score of 30 points. This could be a shootout!
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Over 53 Points @ $2.04 (Topsport)
Bears @ Panthers
- Over is 18-8 in Panthers home games since 2017
o Average 48, Median 52
- Over is 10-8 in Bears games since 2018
o Average 41.33, Median 42
- Model play: 48 total points scored
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 44.5 Points @ $1.92 (Topsport)
Jets @ Dolphins
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 Dolphins home games
o Average 59.17, Median 58
- Over is 6-4 in Jets road games under Adam Gase
o Average 41.7, Median 44
- Model Play: 50 Total Points Scored
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Over 46.5 Points @ $1.86 (Sportsbet)
Packers @ Bucs
- No one has stopped the Packers offence this year, with them playing Vikings, Lions, Saints, and Falcons, are you surprised?
- Bucs ranked #2 in DVOA defence, and ranked #1 in defence DSR
o Ranked 11th in DVOA offence, and 25th in offence DSR.
- I don’t think this becomes the shootout many people predict
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 55.5 Points @ $1.90 (TAB)
Player Props (1 Unit – Anytime TD Scorer unless stated otherwise)
- 1 Unit – David Montgomery (Bears) @ $2 (TAB)
- 1 Unit – Myles Gaskin (Dolphins) @ 1.73 (Ladbrokes)
- 1 Unit – Todd Gurley (Falcons) @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)
- 1 Unit – Calvin Ridley (Falcons) @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)
- 1 Unit – Will Fuller (Texans) @ $2.50 (Bet365)
- 1 Unit – Mark Andrews (Ravens) @ $2.20 (Multiple)
- 1 Unit – TJ Hockenson (Lions) @ $2.90 (Ladbrokes)
- 1 Unit – Evan Engram (Giants) @ $3.25 (Sportsbet)
- 1 Unit – Eric Ebron (Steelers) @ $3.10 (Pointsbet)
All odds are correct as of 22:20 - 18/10/2020 AEDT. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.