NFL Week 6

Browns @ Steelers

- Browns are 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS in road games since 2019

o I’m aware they have a new coach this season, but they still have the same QB and similar roster

- Browns are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS in divisional road games with Baker Mayfield

o 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS at Steelers

- Steelers are 15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS as home favourites in divisional games since 2013

- Model also likes this play.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Steelers -3 @ $1.80 (Pointsbet/Ladbrokes)


Texans @ Titans

- Over is 13-4 in Titans games since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB

o Average 52.17, Median 54

- Model says Total points = 55, so I normally wouldn’t play this…

- BUT, one of the reasons why the Texans let go of HC Bill O’brien was due to his rigid play calling. Interim HC Romeo Crennel promised to sling it a little bit more, and the Texans scored their season highest score of 30 points. This could be a shootout!

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Over 53 Points @ $2.04 (Topsport)


Bears @ Panthers

- Over is 18-8 in Panthers home games since 2017

o Average 48, Median 52

- Over is 10-8 in Bears games since 2018

o Average 41.33, Median 42

- Model play: 48 total points scored

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 44.5 Points @ $1.92 (Topsport)


Jets @ Dolphins

- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 Dolphins home games

o Average 59.17, Median 58

- Over is 6-4 in Jets road games under Adam Gase

o Average 41.7, Median 44

- Model Play: 50 Total Points Scored

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Over 46.5 Points @ $1.86 (Sportsbet)


Packers @ Bucs

- No one has stopped the Packers offence this year, with them playing Vikings, Lions, Saints, and Falcons, are you surprised?

- Bucs ranked #2 in DVOA defence, and ranked #1 in defence DSR

o Ranked 11th in DVOA offence, and 25th in offence DSR.

- I don’t think this becomes the shootout many people predict

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 55.5 Points @ $1.90 (TAB)


Player Props (1 Unit – Anytime TD Scorer unless stated otherwise)

- 1 Unit – David Montgomery (Bears) @ $2 (TAB)

- 1 Unit – Myles Gaskin (Dolphins) @ 1.73 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Todd Gurley (Falcons) @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Calvin Ridley (Falcons) @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Unit – Will Fuller (Texans) @ $2.50 (Bet365)

- 1 Unit – Mark Andrews (Ravens) @ $2.20 (Multiple)

- 1 Unit – TJ Hockenson (Lions) @ $2.90 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Evan Engram (Giants) @ $3.25 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Unit – Eric Ebron (Steelers) @ $3.10 (Pointsbet)


All odds are correct as of 22:20 - 18/10/2020 AEDT. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.