NFL - Week 6

Panthers v Bucs (London)

• No real trends in this one, more of an observation:

Last week the Bucs closed +3 AT the Saints last week. Generally speaking, home field is worth 3, maybe even 3.5 for a winning Saints home team in a divisional game – That makes the Bucs roughly half a point better than the Saints on a neutral field.

Fast forward 7 days, and the market indicates that the Panthers are 2 points better than the Bucs on a neutral field (London). This can only be accurate if you accept that the Panthers are a 2.5-ish better team than the Saints. I don’t believe this at all. The value has to be on the Bucs here.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Bucs +2 @ 1.95 (SB/Top)

Texans @ Chiefs

• With DeShaun Watson starting at QB, the Texans are 7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS on the road

• 4-4 SU, 6-1-1 ATS as underdogs

• Under Patrick Mahomes starting at QB, the Chiefs are 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS at home

• Personal Opinion: I think the Chiefs bounce back after last week, but the Texans are good enough to keep this one close.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Chiefs to win by 1-13 @ $2.60 (Ladbrokes)

Bengals @ Ravens

• The Ravens are 10-7 SU, 5-12 ATS as favourites since 2018

• 3-4 SU, 0-6-1 ATS in divisional games

• The Bengals are 2-6 SU, 6-2 ATS in divisional games as underdogs since 2017

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Bengals +10.5 @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

Saints @ Jags

• Under is 7-2 in the Saints’ last 9 road games

• Average 43.89, Median 47

• Under is 7-2 in the last Jags’ last 9 home games

• Average 32.33, Median 29

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 43.5 @ $1.85 (TAB)

Cowboys @ Jets

• Under is 12-4 in games where the Cowboys are road favourites since 2015

• Average 36.81, Median 39

• Under is 3-1 in Jets games this season. Admittedly they have been playing with a third string QB for the majority of the year, but I still don’t expect Darnold to come back in and start slinging it after missing over a month.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 44.5 @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

Titans @ Broncos

• Titans are 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS as underdogs under Mike Vrabel

• Broncos are 4-7 SU, 2-8-1 ATS as favourites since 2018

• Underdogs are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in games involving the Titans this season

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Titans +1.5 @ $1.96 (Ladbrokes)

Player Props (1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (unless stated otherwise))

If the play is an over/under, play +/- 10%

• DJ Moore over 62.5 receiving yards – CAR – WR @ $1.88 (SB/BE/PB)

• Tyler Boyd over 74.5 receiving yards – CIN – WR @ $1.88 (SB)

• Larry Fitzgerald – ARI – WR @ $2.50 (SB/TAB)

• Terry McLaurin – WAS – WR @ $3.40 (LB)

• 1.5u Austin Hooper – ATL – TE @ $3 (BE)

• Greg Olsen – CAR - TE @ $3.60 (SB)

• Derrick Henry – TEN – RB @ $2.15 (PB)

• Alvin Kamara – NO – RB @ $1.90 (TAB)

• Carlos Hyde over 62.5 Rushing Yards – HOU – RB @ $1.88 (BetEasy)

NFL YTD: 38-32, +15.125 Units (18.79 ROI%)

Odds are correct as of Sunday, 13 October 2019, 13:15 AEDT. Odds are subject to change.