NFL - Week 5 - SNF & MNF

Vikings @ Seahawks

- Seahawks are 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS this season. Even though deserve to be thrown into the elite category, I think they’ve all a sudden become very expensive. In their last 3 games, they have covered by 1 point, 2 points, and 2.5 points. For a team that loves to play in close games (29 of 39 games have been decided by 10 points or less since 2018), I’m not too keen to lay 7 points with the Seahawks.

- I think we have a similar situation here as we do in the Raiders @ Chiefs game. The correlation isn’t as strong due to the small line, but if you like the underdog, you probably like the OVER in this spot, because the Seahawks’ offence is absolutely balling at the moment. The only way the Vikings cover here, we think, is by going toe to toe and play for a shootout.

- Seattle games this season:

o 38-25 @ Falcons

o 35-30 v Patriots

o 38-31 v Cowboys

o 31-23 @ Dolphins

- Seattle are 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS when favourites of 7 points or more since 2018

- I’m aware that its meant to rain during the day in Seattle, but as long as it’s not too windy, rain doesn’t usually play too big of a factor with artificial turf

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Vikings +14.5 / Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet SGM)

Justin Jefferson Yards

- The Seahawks have conceded (wait for it…) 336.3 yard and 1.3 touchdowns a game to Wide Receivers. Through 4 games, 10 different receivers have racked up 70+ yards against Seattle. Just choosing the right players for the right market will be the only challenge.

- Jefferson’s a home-run hitter who can burn you deep. I love him to fill the stat sheet tonight. Lookout for a potential 125+ yard game.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Justin Jefferson o68.5 Rec Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

- 0.5 Units – Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards @ $4.60 (Ladbrokes)

Chargers @ Saints (MNF Early plays)

- We stated last week that the Chargers are not a great Football team; but they’re good enough to almost never get blown out. Since Anthony Lynn took over in 2017, the Chargers have lost by double digits in only 8 of their 54 games. Only 7 teams have lost by 10+ on less occasions than the Chargers in that time span – Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Eagles, Patriots, Saints, and Ravens; some pretty good teams.

- Am I missing something here? This is the Saints team that lost to the Raiders, and just unconvincingly beat the Lions by 6 points. This is not the elite Saints team that we’re accustomed to seeing.

- This season, the Chargers outrank the Saints in net yards / drive (7th to 18th) and net drive success rate (14th to 18th), but where the Chargers let themselves down is turnovers – ranked 30th in net fumbles.

- Saints are 13-7 SU, 7-13 ATS when they are favourites of a TD or more since 2014

- Saints have conceded the 3rd most yards and 2nd most touchdowns to TE’s this season

Recommended Bets:

- 2 Units – Chargers +7.5 @ $1.86 (Sportsbet)

- 0.5 Units – Chargers ML @ $3.90 (Topsport)

- 1 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 47.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (TAB)

Odds are correct as of 08:20, 12th of October 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.