NFL Week 5

Chiefs @ Raiders

  • Chiefs are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Jon Gruden’s Raiders (in this tenure)

  • Wins of 40-33, 35-3, 28-10, and 40-9

  • Since Derek Carr has been at the Raiders (2014), they are 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS in divisional road games.

  • Raiders Team Total Over-Under is 2-16

  • Average 14.17 team points and have scored 20 just twice

  • Raiders are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS at the Chiefs since 2014

  • Average score 11.67 – 29.33

  • Chiefs are 23-2 SU, 18-7 ATS in home divisional games since 2016

  • Chiefs line & UNDER is 6-2 in home divisional games

  • There is a lot of logic behind this. Usually favourites covering is tied with higher scoring and the OVER, and underdogs covering is tied with lower scoring and the UNDER. But in this instance, it is the opposite. Why is that? It’s because you “know” that the Chiefs will score their points. In fact, the Chiefs have scored 20+ in every home divisional game since 2016 (26 games), averaging 29.46 points in the process. Let’s assume that the Chiefs score 30 points in this game for the point of this explanation. If the Raiders are to cover, they’ll have to score their own points opposed to hoping to limit the Chiefs’ offence, bringing the total to OVER. If they don’t cover, their lack of offensive points will most likely mean the UNDER cashes. A uniquely strong correlation here.

Recommended Bet:

- 2 Units – Chiefs -5.5 & Under 61.5 @ $1.95 (Sportsbet SGM)

- 0.5 Units – Chiefs -11.5 / Under 55.5 @ $4 (TAB)

Colts @ Browns

  • Colts are 3-7 SU, 4-1-5 ATS in road games since 2019

  • 7 of the 10 games have been decided by 7 points or less (another by 8)

  • Either Team by under 7.5 is 4-3 in when Browns are home underdogs since 2018

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.18 (Pointsbet)

Eagles @ Steelers

  • Since 2016, the Eagles have been underdogs in 21 matches. Either Team by Under 10.5 is 16-5

  • Since 2019, the Eagles have been involved in 15 games that have been decided by 10 points or less (t-5th most)

  • The Steelers, 14

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.81 (Pointsbet)

Rams @ Washington

  • Under is 11-4 in Rams road games as favourites

  • Average 45.8, Median 46

  • Under is 4-7 in Washington home games since 2019

  • Average is 44.45 Median 46

  • Model says total points scored = 45.5, but with rain expected to be going through Washington DC throughout the whole game, I expect the sloppy natural grass make this game go below that.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 46.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.85 (TAB)

Player Props (1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer unless stated otherwise)

Darrius Slayton (Giants) @ $3.25 (Bet365)

  • Cowboys have conceded the most touchdowns to WR’s (2.3 per game).

  • Slayton has the highest target % share in the red zone (21.74%) .

Todd Gurley (Falcons) @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

  • Becoming somewhat a regular bet around here, and he’s got a great matchup against the Panthers this week who have conceded the most touchdowns to RB’s since 2019.

  • Gurley has the most Redzone rushing attempts in the league (21)

0.5 Units - Drew Sample (Bengals) TD @ $7.80 (Ladbrokes), + 0.5 Units - Over 25.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • - Yes… I know, I know. This makes it the third week in a row that we’re backing this guy – who hasn’t saluted yet. Last week, he really should’ve walked away with AT LEAST one touchdown, with him dropping two in the end zone. He comes into this week with yet another reasonable matchup against the Ravens Defence who have conceded 50+ yards to three different tight ends this season, as well as two scores. Trust me when I say that no matter what happens this week, you won’t see us betting on Sample next week.

Ian Thomas (Panthers) @ $5.90 (Ladbrokes)

  • I don’t love the player… at all, but he comes up against a Falcons D who concede a league high 84 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to TE’s a game. Did you see what Robert Tonyan did to this Falcons Defence last week?

  • Ian Thomas has scored 1 touchdown this season, so that’s encouraging.

Mo Alie-Cox (Colts) @ $3.70 (Ladbrokes)

  • I don’t necessarily love the amount of opportunities Cox is getting (9.52% RZ target share, and 8.53% in total target share), but he makes the most of them. 11 total targets for 11 catches, 2 redzone targets for 2 touchdowns. Obviously going at 100% is not sustainable at all, but he should get some looks against a Browns D that have conceded 4 touchdowns so far to the TE position.

0.5 Units - Eric Ebron (Steelers) @ $3.25 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet) + 0.5 Units – Ebron Over 38.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)

  • Eagles have conceded the 5th most receiving yards and tied-second most TD’s to TE’s this season, including 3 TD’s to Higbee and 183 yards to Kittle. An obvious soft-spot in the Eagles defence.

0.5 Units - Tyler Higbee (Rams) @ $3.60 (Pointsbet)

  • Higbee has been the most targeted Ram in the Redzone this season (26.32% target share), and the third most targeted Ram in total (13.79%).

  • Comes up against a Washington team that have conceded 5 TD’ to TE’s this season.

Keep an eye out for a few plays for SNF and MNF too.

Odds are correct as of 20:30 11/11/2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.