The Trend BettorNFL Week 4
Cardinals @ Panthers
Cardinals are 4-5 SU, 6-1-2 ATS in road games under Cliff Kingsbury
Cardinals have the 5th highest Net Drive Success Rating in the league, the Panthers are ranked 29th.
The Panthers conceded the most Touchdowns to RB’s last season, have conceded the most to RB’s this season too.
Cardinals ATS is probably my favourite side of the week, this week. But I’m buying some insurance by taking the ML; and I love Drake to score a TD this week, as Panthers conceding TD’s to RB’s has been one of the surest bets in the last year and a bit.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Cardinals ML & Drake Anytime TD @ $2.50 (Sportsbet)
Ravens @ Washington
Last week, I claimed that Dwayne Haskins is the worst Quarterback in the league, and I still believe that, which makes this bet hard to make. But sometimes the best bets are the hardest one to make, because they’re usually quite contrarian. So here goes nothing…
Despite conceding 27 points a game, this Washington (side note: it’s going to take a while for me to start not typing “Redskins” when talking about this team) team has one of the most underrated defences. Ranked 2nd in defensive yards/drive, and 5th in defence-DSR; what they could do with is some help on the Offensive side of the ball, which ranks last in yards/drive, 30th in offence-DSR. Keep in mind, Washington (I almost typed Redskins again) were actually leading in the 4th quarter last week against the Browns, but a -5 Turnover Differential was simply too much to overcome. Assuming they don’t have a -5 TO differential today, this defence should keep this one relatively close.
No trends, due to the fact that Washington have a new coach.
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Washington +14 @ $2.05 (TopSport)
Chargers @ Bucs
Under Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 8-8 SU, 9-1-7 ATS as road underdogs.
I don’t like the Chargers to win, but this is a team that always seems to keep it close
14 of their 19 games since 2019 have been decided by 1-7
Ranked 5th in net yards / drive, and 7th in net DSR, the Chargers are a decent football team; efficiency and conversion are their problem, being ranked 26th in net turnover, 17th in net points.
The Bucs, in my opinion, is a bit overrated, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ranked 26th in offensive yards/drive, and 27th in offensive DSR, I don’t think this team blows out the Chargers, leaving the backdoor completely open.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chargers +7.5 @ $1.85 (TAB)
Seahawks @ Dolphins
Seattle are 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS in road games since 2019
8 wins by 1-13
In their last 6 games as home underdogs, the Dolphins are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS.
5 of the 6 games have been decided by single digits.
Seattle are 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS as favourites since 2019
10 wins by 1-13
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Seattle to win by 1-13 @ $2.44 (Sportsbet)
Note: I apologise for the lack of game bets this week, I originally had bets in Steelers @ Titans, Saints @ Lions, and Chiefs @ Patriots, but they have all been taken off the board due to COVID situations.
Player Props – 1 Unit Anytime Touchdown Scorer (Unless stated otherwise)
James Robinson (Jags) @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)
Bengals have conceded the tied-3rd most TD’s to RB’s in 2020 (5)
Robinson is the only Jags RB to have a red-zone carry in 2020
Davlin Cook (Vikings) Over 78.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)
Texans have conceded the most rushing yards to RB’s in 2020 (167.33/game)
Of the RB’s who have had 30+ rushing attempts, Cook averages the most years per carry (6.1)
1.5 Units - Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 281.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Topsport)
Seattle have conceded 450, 397, and 472 passing yards to Ryan, Newton, and Prescott.
No, Fitzpatrick is not as good as these three, but the Beard is very capable of letting it rip. In fact, Fitzpatrick has had 400+ yards 5 times since 2018
Also 0.5 units on “QB Passing Yards Gap - Any Other Result” on Ladbrokes @ $15, practically implying Fitzpatrick won’t land in between 150-400 passing yards. Obviously we see a 400+ angle here, but it’s also in play if for whatever reason Fitzpatrick leaves the game early for whatever reason
Dalton Schultz (Cowboys) @ $4.60 (Ladbrokes)
Without prior knowledge of the fact, if you said/guess that Dalton Schultz had the most redzone targets for the Cowboys so far this season, you’re a liar… but it’s true.
The Browns have conceded the tied-most 4th TD’s to TE’s this season (3).
With the total being 56, expect Schultz to get his chances.
Drew Sample (Bengals) @ 6.70 (Ladbrokes)
Right, this guy laid an absolute egg for us last week. 0 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, leaving me with egg on my face.
…But, Sample still played 89% of offensive snaps, he just wasn’t thrown the ball.
He does have another favourable matchup against the Jags, who have conceded the 5th most yards and tied-4th most TD’s to TE’s.
If he lays an egg again, it’ll be curtains for the “Drew Sample”-train.
Keep an eye out for additional props closer to Kickoff, with potential props in Saints @ Lions, & Bills @ Raiders.
Odds are correct as of 19:25, 4th of October, 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
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