NFL Week 4

Cardinals @ Panthers

  • Cardinals are 4-5 SU, 6-1-2 ATS in road games under Cliff Kingsbury

  • Cardinals have the 5th highest Net Drive Success Rating in the league, the Panthers are ranked 29th.

  • The Panthers conceded the most Touchdowns to RB’s last season, have conceded the most to RB’s this season too.

  • Cardinals ATS is probably my favourite side of the week, this week. But I’m buying some insurance by taking the ML; and I love Drake to score a TD this week, as Panthers conceding TD’s to RB’s has been one of the surest bets in the last year and a bit.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Cardinals ML & Drake Anytime TD @ $2.50 (Sportsbet)

Ravens @ Washington

  • Last week, I claimed that Dwayne Haskins is the worst Quarterback in the league, and I still believe that, which makes this bet hard to make. But sometimes the best bets are the hardest one to make, because they’re usually quite contrarian. So here goes nothing…

  • Despite conceding 27 points a game, this Washington (side note: it’s going to take a while for me to start not typing “Redskins” when talking about this team) team has one of the most underrated defences. Ranked 2nd in defensive yards/drive, and 5th in defence-DSR; what they could do with is some help on the Offensive side of the ball, which ranks last in yards/drive, 30th in offence-DSR. Keep in mind, Washington (I almost typed Redskins again) were actually leading in the 4th quarter last week against the Browns, but a -5 Turnover Differential was simply too much to overcome. Assuming they don’t have a -5 TO differential today, this defence should keep this one relatively close.

  • No trends, due to the fact that Washington have a new coach.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Washington +14 @ $2.05 (TopSport)

Chargers @ Bucs

  • Under Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 8-8 SU, 9-1-7 ATS as road underdogs.

  • I don’t like the Chargers to win, but this is a team that always seems to keep it close

  • 14 of their 19 games since 2019 have been decided by 1-7

  • Ranked 5th in net yards / drive, and 7th in net DSR, the Chargers are a decent football team; efficiency and conversion are their problem, being ranked 26th in net turnover, 17th in net points.

  • The Bucs, in my opinion, is a bit overrated, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ranked 26th in offensive yards/drive, and 27th in offensive DSR, I don’t think this team blows out the Chargers, leaving the backdoor completely open.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chargers +7.5 @ $1.85 (TAB)

Seahawks @ Dolphins

  • Seattle are 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS in road games since 2019

  • 8 wins by 1-13

  • In their last 6 games as home underdogs, the Dolphins are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS.

  • 5 of the 6 games have been decided by single digits.

  • Seattle are 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS as favourites since 2019

  • 10 wins by 1-13

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Seattle to win by 1-13 @ $2.44 (Sportsbet)

Note: I apologise for the lack of game bets this week, I originally had bets in Steelers @ Titans, Saints @ Lions, and Chiefs @ Patriots, but they have all been taken off the board due to COVID situations.

Player Props – 1 Unit Anytime Touchdown Scorer (Unless stated otherwise)

James Robinson (Jags) @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

  • Bengals have conceded the tied-3rd most TD’s to RB’s in 2020 (5)

  • Robinson is the only Jags RB to have a red-zone carry in 2020

Davlin Cook (Vikings) Over 78.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)

  • Texans have conceded the most rushing yards to RB’s in 2020 (167.33/game)

  • Of the RB’s who have had 30+ rushing attempts, Cook averages the most years per carry (6.1)

1.5 Units - Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 281.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Topsport)

  • Seattle have conceded 450, 397, and 472 passing yards to Ryan, Newton, and Prescott.

  • No, Fitzpatrick is not as good as these three, but the Beard is very capable of letting it rip. In fact, Fitzpatrick has had 400+ yards 5 times since 2018

  • Also 0.5 units on “QB Passing Yards Gap - Any Other Result” on Ladbrokes @ $15, practically implying Fitzpatrick won’t land in between 150-400 passing yards. Obviously we see a 400+ angle here, but it’s also in play if for whatever reason Fitzpatrick leaves the game early for whatever reason

Dalton Schultz (Cowboys) @ $4.60 (Ladbrokes)

  • Without prior knowledge of the fact, if you said/guess that Dalton Schultz had the most redzone targets for the Cowboys so far this season, you’re a liar… but it’s true.

  • The Browns have conceded the tied-most 4th TD’s to TE’s this season (3).

  • With the total being 56, expect Schultz to get his chances.

Drew Sample (Bengals) @ 6.70 (Ladbrokes)

  • Right, this guy laid an absolute egg for us last week. 0 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, leaving me with egg on my face.

  • …But, Sample still played 89% of offensive snaps, he just wasn’t thrown the ball.

  • He does have another favourable matchup against the Jags, who have conceded the 5th most yards and tied-4th most TD’s to TE’s.

  • If he lays an egg again, it’ll be curtains for the “Drew Sample”-train.

Keep an eye out for additional props closer to Kickoff, with potential props in Saints @ Lions, & Bills @ Raiders.

Odds are correct as of 19:25, 4th of October, 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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