NFL Week 3

Jets @ Colts

  • In the last 5 Colts home games as favourites, they have conceded an average of 11.8 points

  • Median 13

  • Under Adam Gase, The Jets have averaged 16 team total points on the road

  • Median 15

  • The Jets average a measly 27.43 yards per drive (ranked 30th) and have a 64% Drive Success Rate (32nd)

What is Drive Success Rate (DSR%)?

DSR is the % of times a team converts a new set of downs into a first down or a touchdown. League average is 75.1%

  • On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts concede an average of 24.42 yards/drive (1st), and a 65.9% DSR (2nd)

  • With starting Wide Receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshard Perriman out, the Jets will struggle to throw the ball. Running the ball, the Jets are ranked 29th in yards per carry.

  • Net DSR (Offense minus Defence), the Colts are ranked 1st, Jets 32nd. Aware that it’s only been two weeks, but this Jets team is probably the worst team in Football right now.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Jets Under 16 Team Points @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)

- 1 Unit – Colts to win both halves @ $2 (Bet365)

Washington @ Cleveland

  • Under is 6-3 in Washington road games since 2019… and this defence is better this season in my opinion

  • Average 41.44, Median 35

  • Let me just say this straight off the bat. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting Quarterback in the league, bar none. Sure, he doesn’t turn it over a tonne, but with him in charge, the Redskins can’t move the ball. This season, the Redskins are ranked dead-last in yards per drive (22.52), and it’s not like they’ve played great defences (Eagles & Cardinals)

  • So why don’t I love the Browns? On the defensive side of the ball, the Redskins concede the 2nd least yards per drive (25.37) and lowest DSR (65.1%).

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 45 Total Points @ $1.92 (Topsport)

Raiders @ Patriots

  • Raiders are 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS in road games under Jon Gruden

  • Since 2019, the Patriots have conceded over 17 points just twice in home games since 2019 (9 games total)

  • Admittedly this Patriots defence isn’t as good as previous seasons, but Bill Belichick loves to stop their opponents doing from what they love doing. In terms of predictability, the Raiders have to be up there with the most, as we all saw on MNF against the Saints – Checkdowns to RB/TE’s, and running the ball. I reckon’ well see a spooked Derek Carr against a stacked box.

  • If this was a “normal” year, this play would be a lot stronger. But I suspect that the lack of crowds is inflating scores quite heavily. Same applies to Washington/Cleveland

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 20.5 Raiders Team Points @ $1.84 (TopSport)

Bengals @ Eagles

  • Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 0-9 SU, 5-4 ATS in road games

  • Average losing margin = 8.

  • 7 of the games have been lost by single digits

  • Eagles are 10-7 SU, 5-11-1 ATS at home since 2018

  • 8 of the wins have been decided by 1-13

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Eagles by 1-13 @ $2.44 (Sportsbet)

Titans @ Vikings

  • Since Ryan Tannehill took over the Titans offence (Week 7, 2019), the Titans have scored OVER their Team Total 12 out of 15 games

  • Average 28.33 Team Total, Median 28

  • Vikings are defensively ranked 44.74 yards per drive (29th), 3.53 points per drive (32nd), and 82.1% DSR (32nd)

Recommended Bet: 1 Units – Titans Over 26.5 Team Total Points @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)

Rams @ Bills

  • If there’s one line that doesn’t makes sense to me, its Rams +1.5 @ Bills, when just last week the Rams were +1 @ the Eagles? This either means the Eagles are just as good as the Bills – which we all know is simply not true – or the Rams have been upgraded practically by the same gap between the Bills and the Eagles. This seems like a drastic boost to me.

  • No one is talking about the Bills, most likely due to the fact that they’ve “only” beaten the Jets and the Dolphins. In those two games, the Jets were never in the game, and the Dolphins scored a junk-time touchdown to cover through the back door, resulting in a Bills 3 point win.

  • I think by Thanksgiving, we may be talking about the Bills being a top 5 team.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Bills -1.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Packers @ Saints

  • I reckon this will be a common thought, but I don’t understand this line either. Yes, I know it’s only two weeks in, but everything – my eyes, the data, my gut – is telling me that the Packers are the better team, here.

  • For those who have followed us during the off-season, will understand that this is more an anti-Saints bet than it is a pro-Packers.

  • Although only conceded one TD to RB’s this year, this Broncos team has conceded the 7th most Rushing Yards to RB’s this season. Make the most of this price for Fournette, it won’t be around for too many weeks more.

  • Being dogs didn’t faze the Packers in the last regular-season, going 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS as underdogs.

  • The Packers are ranked 1st in net yards / drive, 3rd in net yards per drive, and 3rd net DSR. I think they will regress a little bit over the year (again, I’m not exactly pro-Packers)

  • Whereas the Saints are ranked 22nd, 18th, and 22nd. Expect them to climb a bit, but the Saints don’t look like the 2019 version.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Units – Packers +3 @ $2.07 (Topsport)

- 0.5 Units – Packers by 1-13 @ $3.06 (Sportsbet)

Player Props – 1 Unit Anytime Touchdown Scorers (Unless stated otherwise)

Joshua Kelley (Chargers) @ $2.50 (TAB/Sportsbet)

  • After conceding the most touchdowns to RB’s in 2019, the Panthers are again leading the most TD’s to backs in the league in 2020

  • When you think of Chargers Running Backs, your first thought is probably (and rightfully) Austin Ekeler, but Josh Kelley is leading the way in goal-line touches for the Chargers (11-4 over Ekeler)

Miles Sanders (Eagles) @ $1.85 (TAB)

  • Did you see the Bengals run D against the Browns last week?

  • Sanders leads the team’s RZ carries with 5 (next is 1)

Jerrick McKinnon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.97 (Topsport) . McKinnon TD @ $2.50 (TAB)

  • With RB’s Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert out, this backfield is McKinnon’s, and with Jimmy G out, we’re going to see a lot of him.

  • Giants have conceded 138 rushing yards per game

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) @ $3.10 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet). CeeDee Lamb Over 60.5 @ $1.88 (Topsport)

  • The Seahawks have conceded 114 and 1 TD to Russell Gage, and 179 yards to Edelman, both Slot Receivers.

  • Behind Amari Cooper (24), Lamb has the 2nd most team targets (15)

Drew Sample (Bengals) @ $5.25 (Pointsbet)

  • The Eagles have conceded 4 TD’s to TE’s this season (most in the league)

  • With CJ Uzomah out, Sample was targeted 7 (!!) times in the 4th quarter last week

  • Odds suggest a low probability %, but I’m not scared to play a full unit at this price.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) @ $1.80 (Sportsbet/TAB)

  • I don’t love the matchup here against a pretty stingy Jets Run D, but Taylor has 11 Red Zone touches/targets in 2 weeks. These odds when his team are heavy favourites are too hard to ignore.

Tyler Higbee (Rams) @ $3.30 (Sportsbet/TAB)

  • You can just imagine the look on my face when Higbee scored 3 touchdowns last week, after not scoring in Week 1 when we played him… Yeah, not happy Jan…

  • He comes up against a Bills D that conceded 130 yards and 1 TD to Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki last week.

Jonnu Smith (Titans) @ $2.63 (Sportsbet)

  • Smith is the most targeted Titan in the Red Zone in 2020.

  • After watching what the Colts’ TE Mo Alie-Cox did to the Vikings last week, Smith will be a big chance to find the end zone.

Leonard Fournette (Bucs) @ $2.50 (Multiple)

  • Make no mistake, this is now Leonard Fournette’s backfield to run.

  • Make the most of this price, because I don’t think it will be offered in weeks to come.

  • Although they’ve only conceded 1 TD to backs this year, the Broncos have struggled against the run, conceding 113.5/g rushing yards to Backs this season.

Odds are correct as of 16:25, 27th of September 2020. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.

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