Bills @ Dolphins
- Dolphins are 5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs
- Underdogs in divisional home games in the first two weeks are 30-31-2 SU, 40-22-1 ATS since 2006
- Bills were 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS as road favourites in 2020
o 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS against divisional teams
- Dolphins are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games
Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
Vikings @ Cardinals
- Over was 9-2 in Vikings games played indoors in 2020
o Average 60.91, Median 59
- Over was 5-5 in Cardinals games played indoors in 2020
o Average 52.2, Median 54
o Average 56.13, Median 60.5 in games played at home
- This would be a 2 unit play, but I already have two props in this game so I don’t want to over-expose.
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Saints @ Panthers
- These teams were ranked 20th and 24th in Offensive pace, meaning these teams are chewing up more clock between plays more than the average. More time off the clock, less plays. Less plays = less points.
- Under was 5-2 in Saints divisional games in 2020
o Average 44.14, Median 40. Average +/- of O/U = -4.79 points
- Going back to last season, each of the last 4 Panthers games have exceeded 40 total points scored.
Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Under 44.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
Chiefs @ Ravens
- Chiefs are 11-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS in September with Mahomes under Center.
- Over is 7-2-2 in these games
- Chiefs / Over 6-point teaser is 10-1 in these games
o What this means is that if you give the Chiefs 6 points, and deduct 6 points from the over under in a two leg multi, the result is 10-1.
- Mahomes has played the Ravens three times:
o 27-24 win
o 33-28 win
o 34-20 win
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chiefs +3.5/Over 49.5 @ $2 (Sportsbet)
-- Player Props --
2 Units – Najee Harris (Steelers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
- Steelers’ RB’s scored in 6 of their 9 home games last season
- Raiders conceded a TD to RB’s in 6 of their 8 road games last season – 10 total
- Harris played 100% of Steelers’ offensive snaps in Week 1
1.5 Units Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) Over 56.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
- Bears conceded 236 yards and 3 touchdowns against a Rams’ wide receiving corp that had the lead for the best part of 55 of the 60 minutes.
- It’s only one game, but Chase lead the team in targets last week, going for 5-101-1. He’s got a very good matchup to do it again.
1.25 Units – Cole Beasley (Bills) Over 51.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Bills’ Wide Receivers amassed 359 and 320 yards against Miami in 2020
- The obvious choice is to just go with Allen over passing yards, but with Dolphins star studded CB’s, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones having the outside covered, I think Allen will be looking to Beasley a lot this week, who had 13 targets in week 1.
1.25 Units – Mike Williams (Chargers) Over 58.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Mike Williams had 12 targets in week 1 in a relatively pass-heavy Chargers’ offense in week 1
- Cowboys conceded 250 receiving yards to Wide Receivers in Week 1
1.5 Units – Darrell Henderson (Rams) Over 55.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Henderson had 16 of the Rams’ RB’s 17 rushing attempts in week 1.
- Colts conceded 5.2 rushing yards / attempt in week 1 – 5th most in the league
- Anything close to 15 carries and this should go over pretty easily.
1.25 Units – Damien Harris (Patriots) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.25 @ (Ladbrokes)
- There were about 4 props from this game I was tossing over, from Jonnu Smith, to Jacobi Meyers, to Harris over rushing yards, except they all have a negative correlation to another, so I’ve decided to stay away from yardage. But they all lead to one thing – Patriots scoring chances.
- Harris had 4 redzone carries last week – the only one to have a carry. Patriots opted for 4 runs and 3 passes in the red zone. I like his chances to score here in a game in which the Patriots are favourites.
1 Unit – Justin Jefferson o73.5 Rec Yards & Adam Thielen (both Vikings) Anytime TD @ $5 (Sportsbet)
- We got within 5 yards of cashing this last week, and I said regardless of result that I’d be persisting with this bet unless I saw a reason not to. I saw enough last week to want to keep playing it.
- Jefferson had 10 targets last week, unfortunately Cousins missed the target one too many times
- Thielen scored 2 touchdowns
- This Cardinals defence completely obliterated the Titans last week, but that was more in the trenches than the coverage. If the Vikings can protect Cousins, I expect a big day for the Vikings duo in what is against a pretty poor Cardinals secondary.
1 Unit – DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.10 (TAB)
- Vikings conceded the 2nd most touchdowns to Wide Receivers in 2020
- Hopkins was targeted twice in the red zone twice last week, catching both balls for touchdowns last week
- Vikings conceded 3 passes in the red zone last week against the Bengals. All 3 balls were caught, 2 of them were touchdowns. This is a great matchup for D-Hop.
1.25 Unit – DK Metcalf (Seahawks) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2 (Ladbrokes)
- Titans conceded the third most Touchdowns to Wide Receivers in 2020, and they picked up right where they left off in week 1 conceding 4.
- Metcalf had 2 of the Seahawks’ 3 redzone targets in week 1.
- I see that rain is expected in this game, but with games played on AstroTurf, that doesn’t really bother me to be honest.
1.25 Units – Patrick Mahomes Over 318.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
- Mahomes has had 377, 374, and 385 passing yards in his three games against the Ravens
- Mahomes averages 321 passing yards in games played in September
- Baltimore conceded the most passing yards in week 1
Odds are correct as of 08:30 - Sunday 19th September 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change.