Lions @ Packers
- Lions are 4-2 SU, 6-0 ATS against the Packers since 2017
- Don’t get me wrong, the Packers deserved to win last week against the Vikings, and could’ve won by more than the 9 points that they did, but the more you read of our previews, you’ll know just how much we value Net Yards Per Play when judging a team. The Packers were “out played” 7.8 to 6.9 yards. The difference? The Packers led time of possession by extending drives and not turning the ball over; both variables with a lot more variation and randomness, therefore less predictable.
- On the flip side, despite losing the game, the Lions played better for longer against the Bears. I’m not saying they deserved to win, but they definitely had more opportunities to do so. The Lions outgained the Bears marginally – 5.92 to 5.58 ypp – again, turnovers (and a costly last minute drop) being the difference.
- I think you get one cheap side (Detroit) vs one expensive side (Packers)
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Lions +6 @ $1.97 (Topsport)
Vikings @ Colts
- Packers @ Vikings averaged 7.23 yards per play (most last week), and Colts @ Jags had 5.91 yards per play (4th most last week). Both teams moved the ball, and allowed the ball to be moved against them fairly easily. This will be a shootout.
- Over was 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 road games last season
o Average 57.8
- Last week was probably the worst Defence I’ve seen Mike Zimmer coach. You can never buy too much after one week, but they need to fix it fast!
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 48.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (TAB)
49ers @ Jets
- We’re doing something different with this game. If there’s one thing that the Jets are any good at, it’s stopping the run. Ranked #2 in run defence in 2019, and now in 2020, the Jets come up against the 3rd most Run-Heavy team of 2019. If the Jets can stop what the 49ers try to do, this game could be closer than people think.
- Add in the injuries that the 49ers have at WR and TE, passing the ball won’t be too easy either.
- I don’t love the under enough to play it, and I don’t love the Jets enough to play them in isolation either, but I feel that there is a strong correlated parlay opportunity here. IF the Jets cover (which I lean), then I suspect the under should hit as this game is far more likely to be a 20-17 score line than a 27-24 score line in my opinion.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Jets +13.5 / Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)
Rams @ Eagles
- Under is 7-0 in the last 7 Eagles home games
o Average 31.14, Median 27
- Again, small sample size, but it looks like the Eagles have brought their 2019 worries into this season. A horrible O-line, and injuries across the offence, I believe they’ll struggle to find points.
- On defence, the Eagles haven't conceded more than 17 points in their 7 home games, making it a pretty tough trip for the Rams, too.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Under 45.5 @ $1.96 (Topsport)
Chiefs @ Chargers
- Chiefs are 7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 divisional games
o Average winning margin = 20.29
- Chiefs are 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS against the Chargers since 2017
- Chiefs are 13-0 SU, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 4 Septembers
- These trends can come down to 1 thing: Coaching. Andy Reid is one of, if not the, best offensive minds in Football. He, and the Chiefs, shine in September because he’s had 8 months to come up with new plays and ways to beat defences. And in divisional games, due to the familiarity of their opponents, expect smart coaches to figure out how to beat them. The Chiefs are the best coach team in the division, and it shows.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Chiefs -8.5 @ $2 (TAB)
Broncos @ Steelers
- Broncos are 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS as underdogs under Vic Fangio
- 15 of the last 21 Steelers home games have been decided by 7 points or less
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Broncos +7.5 @ $1.80 (TAB)
Player Props (1 Unit - Anytime Touchdown unless stated otherwise)
Ronald Jones (Bucs) @ $2.37 (Sportsbet)
- The Panthers are another team who have brought 2019 with them into this season despite the new coaching staff. After conceding 30 touchdowns to RB’s last season, they started off the season conceding 3 in week 1.
- I don’t know who will be the Bucs’ starting Back in 4 weeks time (with Fournette being signed), but right now its Ronald Jones. He should find the end zone.
Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers) Over 250.5 Passing Yards @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)
- The Bucs conceded the 3rd most passing yards in 2019 and are ranked #1 in Run Defence. I like this play two-fold. If the Panthers are to be in this game, they may need to look downfield. Alternatively, if the Panthers are down in this game (which the market suggests that they will be), they will also need to pass the ball in this situation.
Zack Moss (Bills) 1.5 Units - 1+ @ $3.60 (Sportsbet) 0.45 Units - 2+ @ $21 (Bet365) 0.05 Units - 3+ @ $226 (Sportsbet)
- We played this guy last week, and after having touches inside the 5 on 4 different drives, it’s obvious that he is the Bills’ Goal Line Back. Until the bookies treat him that way, he is almost an automatic selection every week.
- Odds have deflated a little bit, but I like his chances more this week than last, against a Dolphins side who conceded 2+ touchdowns to RB’s on 3 occasions in 2019.
Robert Woods (Rams) Over 65.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)
- The Eagles conceded the 6th most yards to Receivers last season, and conceded 100+ yards to 14 different receivers last year, including some big numbers (100+) to receivers who line up wide opposed to the slot (McLaurin x2, J Jones, Ridley, M Jones, D Adams, S Diggs, A Cooper, D Parker). This suits Woods perfectly.
TY Hilton (Colts) @ $2.50 (Ladbrokes)
- TY Hilton will be licking his lips after watching what Davante Adams did to the Vikings last week. TY is definitely a play here.
0.5u Anytime TD Plays
- Eric Ebron (Steelers) @ $4.50 (Multiple Books)
- Logan Thomas (Redskins) @ $5 (Bet365)
Odds are correct as of 15:45 – 20th September 2020. Odds are subject to change. Gamble Responsibly.
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