Updated: Jan 3, 2021
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Week 17 is probably the hardest week to file down player props. Not only do you see starters being rested, but bookmakers often post a limited number of player prop markets… if at all, because of this. #Cowards
But there should be enough here to bet on. So, here we go.
Due to the uniqueness of the week, what I will do is: post an original player props preview, and then update it as I add onto it, and I will post it on twitter whenever a new post has been added. Also, when I post, there is a chance that another bookmaker later posts a better number or a market with better odds, but due to the nature of my work (I’m working Sunday AEDT), I probably won’t have time to pump them out all at once waiting for each bookmaker to drip feed markets.
As I write this on Saturday (AEDT), only Sportsbet and Pointsbet have player prop markets (at a limited supply). Topsport and Ladbrokes can usually be found on Sundays. Bet365 and TAB usually have props up on Saturday, but they don’t have any at the moment.
1.5 Units – Wayne Gallman (Giants) Over 48.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Since Wayne Gallman took over the Giants backfield in week 8, he has run for this number on 5 of his 8 games.
His last two games he’s only had 9 and 6 carries. Mainly due to the fact that the Giants haven’t been running the ball as they’ve trailed for the majority of the games
Has still lead the carries for the team, though
Dallas concede the 2nd most rush yards to RB’s in the league (130.1)
Dallas have conceded this number to 16(!) Running Backs
Play up to 55.5
2 Units – Kyler Murray (Cardinals) Under 39.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
Murray has played the Rams three times in his short career. Rushing for 28, 0, and 15 yards in those three games
Rams front 7 is just too dominate and fast to let Murray run as he would like
Cardinals HC Kingsbury stated during the week that Murray sustained a “lower-leg” injury in last week’s loss to the 49ers. He didn’t elaborate too much, but there were question marks over Murray’s availability this week. Assuming he does play, expect him to stay in the pocket.
Play down to 30.5
1 Unit – JK Dobbins 50+ Rush Yards & TD @ $3.00 (Pointsbet SGM)
Dobbins has had 50+ & TD in each of his last 5 games
Bengals have conceded 50+ & TD to 8 RB’s this season
I had this booked as a 1.5+ unit play, but the fact that Gus Edwards had more carries than Dobbins last week worries me a bit. I’m also going to play Edwards Anytime TD @ $3.10 (Sportsbet), for 0.5 units.
Play down to $2.60 for both
1 Unit – Lamar Jackson Under 63.5 Rush Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
Seems like de ja vu, from two weeks ago
In games where the Ravens win by more than 2+ touchdowns, Lamar Jackson averages 46.2 rush yards. In games in which the Ravens don’t win by 2+ touchdowns, he averages 75.22.
The Ravens are big favourites here (-13), so this could be a blowout
If it is a blowout, the Ravens will most likely pull Jackson out of the game as they’ll have their eyes on the playoffs.
Play down to 55.5
0.5 Units – Rob Gronkowski (Bucs) Anytime TD @ $3.40 (Sportsbet)
Gronkowski has been the tied-most targeted Buc in the Redzone (20 total)
Gronkowski has the most targeted Buc in the Red Zone in this week 15 match up, unfortunately none of the targets stuck.
I reckon they’ll look to exploit this matchup once again
Falcons concede the 3rd most yards, and tied-3rd most touchdowns to TE’s
Only half a unit because I don’t have a feel of what the Bucs are going to do in terms of resting players. If they do rest players, Gronk would probably be on top of the list, but I’m willing to risk half a unit to find out at these odds.
Play down to $3
2 Units – Calvin Ridley (Falcons) Over 85.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
Ridley’s last 4 games:
108, 124, 163, 130 receiving yards
Ridley averages 118.2 receiving yards when Julio Jones is out.
110, 136, 50, 124, 163, 130
Averages 76.13 when Jones is playing
Jones has been ruled out with a hamstring injury
Bucs concede the 11th most rec yards to WR’s this season
Have conceded this number in 9 games
The Falcons season is over (duh), but with Ryan having the 4th most passing yards and Ridley in 5th for receiving. Don’t be surprised if they put a lot of energy and focus in to taking home some individual accolades.
Play up to 95.5
*Note: 2 Units is a max play for player props.
I expect to have more player props; probably in Titans @ Texans and Vikings @ Lions, at the very least, when more markets come out.
All plays above were posted, and correct as of 17:10 - Saturday 2nd January, 2020. Odds and markets are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
1 Unit – Jonathan Taylor (Colts) 75+ Rush Yards & TD @ $2.53 (Pointsbet)
In Taylor’s last 5 games, he averages 97.6 rushing yards and has scored 6 touchdowns
Jags concede the third most rushing yards to RB’s in the league (117.4)
And the tied 5th most touchdowns to RB’s (1.2)
Play down to $2.20
1 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 70.5 Rec Yards & Adam Thielen Anytime TD @ $3.46 (Sportsbet)
Since Jefferson started his first NFL game in week 3, Jefferson Over 75.5 & Thielen Anytime TD has hit in 8 of the 12 games the two receivers have played together
As I’ve stated before, Jefferson will hurt you between the 20’s, whereas Thielen is a red zone machine.
I know it, the Lions would know it. Whether they can actually stop it is another thing
Lions concede the 2nd most receiving yards and the 3rd most touchdowns to WR’s in the league
Play down to $2.80
Added plays are correct as of 16:40 Sunday 3rd of January, 2020 (AEDT)
May have one more posted on Twitter later on.