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Titans @ Texans
- Both teams to score 25+ is 3-0 in Titans games played indoors this season
o 31-30, 45-26, 46-25
- Texans have conceded 25+ points in 7 of their 9 indoor games this season
o Only scored 25+ on 4 occasions
- We have the Titans ranked as the 4th best offence (29.63 mean expected score), and 4th worst defence (29.18)
- We have the Texans offence 24.54 and 29.27
- These two played a 42-36 game in week 6
- Need it to go to script, but I can see a shootout here
- 1 Unit – Both Teams to Score 25+ @ $2.75 (Sportsbet)
- 0.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 30+ @ $5 (Sportsbet)
Raiders @ Broncos
- Under is 8-0 in the last 8 games between these two teams
- More relevantly, under is 3-0 between Fangio and Gruden
o 40, 31, 49
- Under is 7-4 in Broncos divisional games under Vic Fangio
o Average 41, Median 38
- Don’t think you’ll find a “flatter” team in the league this week than the Raiders, after being eliminated after their loss last week vs the Dolphins
- Model likes it: 49.22
- Would be a higher stake if it wasn’t a week 17 game
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 51 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)
Seahawks v 49ers (in Arizona)
- 4 of the 5 games between 49ers and Seahawks have been decided by 10 points or less since Shanahan became the 49ers head coach
- All of the last 10 49ers divisional games have been decided by 10 points or less
- 16 of the 23 Seahawks divisional games since 2017 have been decided by 10 points or less
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.81 (Pointsbet)
Dolphins @ Bills
- Intro note: to the naked eye, the Bills have very little to play for, but they’ve come out and said that they want to win to secure the #2 seed – which will give them homefield advantage throughout the playoffs except over the Chiefs. And I believe them, but I don’t think the market does (enough)
- Bills are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Usually, I would stay away from a team that is this hot, because they are expensive. But I don’t think they’re expensive here at all.
- Bills are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season. Their one loss? To the Chiefs. No shame in that.
o 2nd worst result: win by 3
- Since Flores took over the Dolphins, the Bills have beaten them by 10, 17, and 3
- Model likes it: We have the Bills by 7
- I also like Bills TT Over, and Game total Over. Snow is expected. But if you’re looking for an extra bet in this game, don’t be scared off by the snow as without wind, especially on artificial turf, as it doesn’t negatively impact scoring. 43 seems low.
o If you are looking at total, I’d play Bills TT over as it eliminates the question marks the Dolphins have with Tua.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Bills -3 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
Packers @ Bears
- Since Matt Nagy took over the Bears, Bears are 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS against the Packers
o All losses by 1-17
o 1 win by 1 point
- Packers are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS in road divisional games under Matt LeFluer
o All wins by 1-13
- Model likes it: Packers by 5
Recommended Bet: 2 Units - Packers by 1-17 @ $2.05 (Sportsbet SGM)
Player Props up tomorrow!
Odds are correct as of 21:45, 1st of January 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly!