NFL - Week 16

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Rams @ Seahawks

  • Since Sean McVay took over the Rams in 2017, 5 of the 7 games against Seattle have been by under 10 points. All 5 by 7 or under too

  • 15 of Seattle’s 22 divisional games since 2017 have been decided by 10 points or less

  • All 4 of Rams’ divisional games this season have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 12 of Seattle’s games this season have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 2nd most in the league

  • You know where I’m going with this…

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.70 (Pointsbet)


Broncos @ Chargers

  • 5 of the 7 games between these two teams have been decided by 10 points or less since 2017 – when Anthony Lynn took over the Chargers

  • 12 of the past 13 Chargers divisional games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 13 of the Chargers 14 games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Most in the league

  • Denver 9

  • T-11th in the league

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.70 (Pointsbet)


Falcons @ Chiefs

  • Chiefs are 13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS this season

  • 12 wins by 1-17

  • Falcons are 4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS this season

  • All 10 losses by 1-17

  • Model likes it: Chiefs by 8

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Chiefs by 1-17 @ $2 (Sportsbet SGM)


Panthers @ Washington

  • Carolina are 4-10 SU, 8-6 ATS this season

  • 9 losses by 1-14

  • Washington are 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS this season

  • 4 wins by 1-14

  • Leaning towards Washington by margin instead of -1, because I don’t think Haskins can run up a score.

  • Model likes it: Washington by 4

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Washington by 1-14 @ $2.60 (Sportsbet SGM)


Player Props

1 Unit – David Montgomery 100 rush + TD @ $3.75 (Sportsbet)

  • Again? Yeah again. It seems that we’ve played this guy more than we haven’t, but he keeps cashing for us, and he just keeps getting better.

  • Montgomery has ran for 100+ & a TD in 3 of his last 4 games

  • Jags concede the 3rd most rushing yards to RB’s, and 6th most TD’s

1 Unit – Cooper Kupp Over 60.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (TopSport)

  • We played this the last time these two played, and although Kupp exploded out of the gate, the game script (Rams lead the whole game) limited his chances.

  • Seahawks concede the most catches and yards to slot receivers in 2020

1.5 Units – Sammy Watkins Over 3.5 Receptions @ $1.80 (Bet365)

  • Watkins has had 4+ catches in 6 of 9 games this year

  • Falcons concede the 3rd most catches to WR’s/game (15.2)

  • Looked to focus on KC WR’s, but Hill is very expensive

1 Unit – DK Metcalf Under 70.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • The Rams have only conceded 71+ to 3 Wide Receivers this season

  • Rams concede the least receiving yards to WR’s this season (131.1)

  • Metcalf was held to 2 catches for 28 yards last time around

2 Units – David Njoku Over 6.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.83 (Bet365)

  • I reckon we’ve caught the bookmaker napping here.

  • Bear with me – Four… yes, FOUR(!) Browns receivers have been listed as out on Sunday due to COVID protocols, leaving only 1 active WR on the roster. Yes they can promote from the practice squad to fill the numbers, but it also presents a huge opportunities for other playmaking positions. Eg, RB and TE’s.

  • Let’s focus on TE’s – A position that the Jets concede the most receiving yards to, in the league – 66.1 per game

  • Austin Hooper is the obvious answer, but I’m bypassing him as I think the 2nd and 3rd stringers will see more of a rise in opportunities than the starter.

  • Browns backup tight ends are David Njoku and Harrison Bryant

  • Bryant has played 14 games and averaged 14.4 receiving yards

  • His o/u receiving yards is 21.5

  • David Njoku has played 11 games, averages 15.8 receiving yards

  • His o/u receiving yards is.. 6.5!? Huh?

  • Not great, but Njoku has cleared this number in 6 of his 11 games. A rise in opportunities should allow him to clear this no problem.


Odds are correct as of 16:25 – 27th of December 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.