NFL - Week 15

Bears @ Packers

  • In their last 7 divisional games, Under is 6-1 involving the Bears

  • Average 32.29, Median 34, Average +/- of O/U is -8.93

  • Under Matt LaFleur, Under is 3-0 in divisional games involving the Packers

  • Average 31.66, Median 37, Average +/- of O/U is -13.83

  • 7 of the 10 divisional games that Matt Nagy has coached in have been decided by 7 points or less

  • All 3 of the divisional games that Matt LaFleur has coached in have been decided by 3 points or less

  • Each of the last 4 times these two have played have been decided by 7 points or less

Recommended Bets:

  • 1 Unit – Under 40.5 Total Points Scored $1.99 (TopSport)

  • 1 Unit – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.04 (Pointsbet)

Texans @ Titans

  • Since 2018, Both teams have scored 20+ in 9 of the Texans 14 road games

  • Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB, both teams have scored 20+ in 6 of the 7 games involving the Titans

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $1.89 (Pointsbet)


Broncos @ Chiefs

  • Since 2018, Under is 8-1-1 in Broncos divisional games

  • Average 41.44, Median 41, Average +/- of O/U is -4.94

  • Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, Under 5-0 in their last 5 divisional games

  • Have not conceded 18+ in any of these

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Broncos Under 17.0 Team Total Points @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)


Bucs @ Lions

  • Bucs have scored 26+ in 4 of their 6 road games this season (23+ in all 6)

  • Lions have conceded 26 in 4 of their 6 road games this season

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Bucs Over 25.5 Team Total Points @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)


Jaguars @ Raiders

  • Let me just say, the Jaguars locker room would have to be ranked as the worst in the league right now.

  • Jags are 0-5 SU & ATS in their last 5 games, averaging by an average of 23.4 points in the process.

  • Failing to cover by -21.1 points.

  • The Raiders haven’t been great as of late, but as this is most likely their last ever game at the Coliseum, I expect them to be up for this.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Raiders -6.5 @ 1.96 (TopSport)


Vikings @ Chargers

  • Vikings are 12-6-1 SU, 11-8 ATS as road favourites under Mike Zimmer

  • Chargers are 3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games… I say “home” very loosely

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Vikings -1 @ $1.90 (TopSport)


Rams @ Cowboys

  • Under is 11-4 in Rams road games since 2018

  • Average 46.93, Median 46, Average +/- of O/U is -3.1

  • Under is 3-3 in Cowboys home games this season

  • Average 47.83, Median 49.5

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 49 Total Points Scored @ $1.84 (Topsport)


Bills @ Steelers

  • 9 of the Steelers 13 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less

  • 4th in the league

  • Buffalo have started as underdogs in 6 games this season, 5 of them have been decided by 7 points or less.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by 7 Points or Less @ $1.91 (Pointsbet/Sportsbet)


Player Props:

(1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer unless stated otherwise)


Chris Carson – SEA – RB @ $1.80 (Bet365/TopSport)

  • No team have given up more touchdowns to Running Backs than the Panther (24), and with Carson getting 76.92% (40 of 52) Red Zone touches among team backs this season, I expect him to find pay dirt.

Josh Jacobs – OAK – RB @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

  • The Jaguars have given up 10 touchdowns to Running Backs in the last 5 weeks (2 per week!), and although Josh Jacobs is being nursed with a shoulder injury, I’m reading that he will play. If he plays, he should score. If he doesn’t, then your bet is void anyway.

Darrius Slayton – NYG – WR @ 3 (Sportsbet/Ladbrokes)

  • - I’m a little worried about the 15m/h winds that is expected to be blowing through New York at the time of the game, but it shouldn’t be enough to prevent Slayton getting his chances this weekend. Eli showed great solace in throwing the ball to Slayton last week, and they should be able to take advantage of this Dolphins D who have given up the most touchdowns to receivers this season (23).

1.5 Units - DeVante Parker – MIA – WR over 51.5 Rec Yards @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

  • Again, wind is expected to play a part in this game, but Parker has hit over 51.5 in 7 of his last 8 games. He comes up against a team that have conceded the 2nd most receiving yards to wide outs this season. I like this matchup a lot.

1.5 Units – Breshard Perriman – TB – WR over 36.5 Rec Yards @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

0.5 Units – Perriman 75+ @ $7 (TAB)

  • Not a sexy pick by any means, but I love this play of Breshard Perriman, here. The Lions give up the 5th most receiving yards to Wide Receivers this season, so you’d think that both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will see plenty of the ball in this one… oh wait, Mike Evans is most likely out for the rest of the season with a hamstring he pulled last week. The next man up will be Perriman, a receiver who has had over 44 in each of his last 3 games, and 70+ in his last two... and that's WITH Evans. I’d also considering looking around for 70+ 80+ etc props at higher prices as I don’t think the market has adjusted for Evans’ disappearance enough (if at all).

1.5 Units - Jarvis Landry o73.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)

  • Jarvis Landry has reached this number in 4 of his last 5 games, and this week he has a favourable matchup against the Cardinals – who have given up the most receiving yards line up in the slot, this season (118.1 yards / game). Landry leads the team in targets, and routes run from the slot position. With Cardinals' All-Pro Corner, Patrick Peterson most likely following Odell Beckham all day, this becomes a much favourable matchup.

Good luck if you’re following, and gamble responsibly.


NFL YTD: 107-100, +30.66 units.


Odds are correct as of 18:45 on Sunday 15th of December, 2019 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.

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