NFL Week 14

Chiefs @ Dolphins

  • Under is 8-5-1 in Chiefs road games since 2019

  • Average 49.71, Median 51

  • I don’t consider the Dolphins to be a “Median” team. DVOA have them with a below average offence (19th) and above average defence (11th)

  • Under is 8-4 in Dolphins games this season

  • Average 42.92, Median 44.5

  • Model likes it: 48.5

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Under 50.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.98 (Topsport)*


Titans @ Jags

  • Over is 9-2-1 in Titans games this season

  • Average 57.08, Median 59.5

  • Over is 6-6 in Jags games this season

  • Average 50.25, Median 50.5

  • Over is 2-0 between these two teams since Ryan Tannehill has become the starting QB for the Titans

  • 62 & 63 total points

  • Model likes it: 55.5

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 52.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.96 (Topsport)*


Colts @ Raiders

  • Despite being hailed an elite defence, the Colts have conceded THE most yards per play in the last 3 weeks

  • Have conceded an average of 32 points in that span

  • Over is 7-5 in Colts games this season

  • Average 50.08, Median 49

  • Over is 8-3-1 in Raiders games this season

  • Average 55.83, Median 57.5

  • Only 3 games have gone under 51.5

  • Model likes it: 53.5

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 51.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)*


Jets @ Seahawks

  • Since 2018, Under is 35-15-1 in games where the home team is favoured by more than 10 points

  • After the Over going 6-2 in their first 8 games, Under is 4-0 in the last 4 Seahawks games

  • Average 39.25, Median 39.5

  • Under is 3-2 in Jets road games this season

  • Average 43.4, Median 44

  • Jets average 12.2 team total points on the road this season, median 9

  • I think this will be a low scoring game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks blew them out something nasty after losing to the Giants at home last week. So I’ll be focusing on the Jets team total here.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Jets Under 16.5 Team Total Points @ $1.90 (Topsport)*


Texans @ Bears

  • 9 of Chicago’s 12 games this year have been decided by 7 points or less (most in the league - 75%)

  • 6 of Houston’s 12 games this year have been decided by 7 points or less (T-12th in the league – 50%)

  • 4 of the 5 Texans games played outdoors this season have been decided by 7 points or less

  • 5 of the 6 Bears home games this season have been decided by 7 points or less (83.33%)

  • o The only one that didn’t, was decided by 8

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 7.5 @ $2.12 (Pointsbet)*


Packers @ Lions

  • Both Teams to Score 1+ TD in Both Halves is 8-4 in Lions games this season (66.67%)

  • Both Teams to Score 2+ TD in Both Halves is 6-6 in Packers games this season (50%)

  • Over is 5-0 in Lions home games this season

  • Average 59.8, Median 62

  • Over is 3-1 in Packers games played indoor this season

  • Average 66, Median 66

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 54.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)


* - indicates posted on Twitter on Saturday


Player Props


1.5 Units - Justin Herbert (Chargers) Over 281.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • Falcons concede the 2nd most passing yards in the league – 300.7 ypg

  • Herbert has cleared this number in 7 of his 11 starts

1 Unit – Mike Glennon Over 254.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • Titans concede the 5th most passing yards in the league (283.4 per game)

  • Titans have conceded this amount, 8 times this season

  • We know Glennon is well and truly capable to clear this number, having 280 last week

1 Unit – Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Over 73.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • This rookie seems to be in our previews just about every week

  • Since Week 3 (first NFL start), Jefferson has 42.86% of team WR targets

  • In their last 5 games, Bucs have conceded 74+ yards to at 6 different wide receivers

  • Bucs concede the 7th most receiving yards to WR’s (183.4)

1 Unit – Adam Thielen (Vikings) TD @ $ 2.37 (Bet365)

  • Excluding week 12 (Thielen was out), Thielen has 71.43% of WR Team Red Zone Targets

  • 10 of 14

  • Tampa Bay concede the tied-6th most receiving TD’s to WR’s this season – 1.2 per game

  • Thielen has scored in 8 of his 11 games this season

0.5 Units – Brady & Cousins both to throw for 300+ yards @ $7 (Sportsbet)

  • Bucs concede the 6th most passing yards (274.6) and Vikings concede the 9th most passing yards (271.4)

  • Obviously need the game script to go to plan, but with a bit of luck, I could definitely see this cashing

1 Unit – David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

  • - “What… again?!” Haha, yeah… again!

  • - Texans concede the most rushing yards to RB’s in the league – 139.8

  • - Texans have conceded this number to 10 RB’s this year

0.5 Units – Hunter Henry Anytime TD @ $3.60 (Sportsbet)

  • Really like this guy in this spot… but I didn’t want to double up on Chargers yardage (already got Herbert), so going for TD instead

  • Falcons have conceded the tied-2nd most touchdowns to TE’s his season – 9

  • Henry has the 2nd most Red Zone targets for the Chargers this year. 13 to Allen’s 15

If you would like to support The Trend Bettor, please feel free to donate via the link below. All donations, no matter how big or how small, are greatly appreciated.

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/TheTrendBettorPtyLtd


Odds are correct as of 12:15 – 13th of December 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.