The Trend BettorNFL Week 13
Raiders @ Jets
Over is 7-3-1 in Raiders games this season
Average 55.55, Median 57
Only one Raiders games have gone under 48.5
Wet/rainy/snowy game @ Cleveland
Over is 5-6 in Jets games this season
Average 43.09, Median 44
The Jets offence isn’t pretty, and is very inconsistent.
Have scored 0-9 points on 4 occasions
10-19 on 4 occasions
20+ on 3 occasions
I’m removing the uncertainty of the Jets offence, by focusing on the Raiders Team Total
Jets’ opponent team total o/u is 8-3 this season
Average 29.27, Median 30
Raiders TT O-U this season is 6-5 this season
Average 26.55, Median 31
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Raiders Over 27 Team Total Points @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)*
Browns @ Titans
Both teams to score 1+ TD in both halves is 7-4 in Titans games
Whenever I refer to Browns games totals, I will ignore their 3-game stretch from weeks 8-11 which were all heavily rain/wind affected, as it’s not a true reflection of the scoring (in regular/dry games)
Exclude those three games, BTTS 1+ TD in both halves is 6-2 in Browns games this season
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Both Teams to Score 1+ TD in both halves @ $2 (Sportsbet)*
Patriots @ Chargers
In 8 of the 11 Chargers games, both teams have scored 20+
Tied-4th in the league
Only 5 of the 11 Patriots games, both teams have scored 20+, but… 4 out of 5 in road games.
In 5 of the 6 Chargers indoor games this season, both teams have scored 20+ points
Model likes it: 24-26
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)*
Jaguars @ Vikings
In 9 of the 11 Vikings games, both teams have scored 20+
Tied-most in the league
In 7 of the 11 Jags games, both teams have scored 20+
Tied-8th most in the league
Model likes it: 23-27
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $2 (Sportsbet)*
Rams @ Cardinals
Rams are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS against the Cardinals since McVay’s first year
More relatively though, 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS against Kingsbury. Wins of 27 and 7 last season
Rams are 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS in road divisional games under McVay
Cardinals are 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS in divisional games under Kingsbury
Model likes it: Rams by 5.5
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Rams -2.5 @ $1.92 (Topsport) - $2 on Topsport Promo Lines
Giants @ Seahawks
Giants have scored 20+ Team Total Points in 6 of their last 7 games
19 in the other
In 9 of the Seahawks 11 games, both teams have scored 20+
Giants are 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS in road games this season
All games decided by 4 points or less
Seattle are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in home games.
All games have been decided by 10 points or less
Potential flat spot – Seattle are 5-3 SU, 2-6 in games where they are home favourites of 7+ points.
Notes: This was typed on Friday, and since, Giants QB Daniel Jones has been listed as doubtful. We were looking at Giants +10.5 and BTTS 20+, but we will wait on the game-time decision on the QB.
* indicates that bet was posted on Twitter on Saturday.
Player Props – 1 Unit Unless Stated Otherwise
1.5 Units - Baker Mayfield (Browns) Over 223.5 Passing Yards @ $1.87 (TAB)
Mayfield has only achieved this in 4 games this season… but
Titans have conceded this number in 9 of 11 games (Jackson, Lock)
Should be high scoring
Sam Darnold (Jets) Over 220.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
A bit like Mayfield, Darnold hasn’t achieved this mark often (1 from 7)
Raiders have conceded this number in 8 games (Newton, Mayfield, Ryan)
David Montgomery (Bears) Over 63.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.87 (TAB)
We’ve played him a few times this year, and has been money for us
Lions have conceded this number to 10 Backs so far this season
James Robinson (Jags) Over 75.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
Robinson has 96.2% of Jags RB rushing attempts this season
Vikings concede 102.2 rush yards to RB’s this season
Vikings have conceded 76+ rushing yards to RB’s in 8 games this season
Derek Carr (Raiders) Over 252.5 Passing Yards @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
Jets concede the 3rd most gross passing yards to QB’s (291.5)
Jets have conceded o252.5 in 7 games
RB Jacobs is out
Carr has gone over this total on 7 occasions this season
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Bet365)
Since his first start in Week 3, Jefferson has gone over this total in 6 game (out of 9)
Since Week 3, Jefferson has had a 42.31% target share among WR’s
Jags concede the 5th most receiving yards to WR’s (187.2)
Players to Score a Touchdown (0.5 Units each)
DaVante Parker (Dolphins) @ $2.50 (TAB/SB)
Adam Thielen (Vikings) @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)
Michael Thomas (Saints) @ $3 (TAB)
Allen Robinson (Bears) @ $2.40 (TAB/SB)
T.J Hockenson (Lions) @ $3.60 (SB)
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Odds are correct as of 14:45 – 6th of December 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.