NFL Week 13

Raiders @ Jets

  • Over is 7-3-1 in Raiders games this season

  • Average 55.55, Median 57

  • Only one Raiders games have gone under 48.5

  • Wet/rainy/snowy game @ Cleveland

  • Over is 5-6 in Jets games this season

  • Average 43.09, Median 44

  • The Jets offence isn’t pretty, and is very inconsistent.

  • Have scored 0-9 points on 4 occasions

  • 10-19 on 4 occasions

  • 20+ on 3 occasions

  • I’m removing the uncertainty of the Jets offence, by focusing on the Raiders Team Total

  • Jets’ opponent team total o/u is 8-3 this season

  • Average 29.27, Median 30

  • Raiders TT O-U this season is 6-5 this season

  • Average 26.55, Median 31

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Raiders Over 27 Team Total Points @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)*


Browns @ Titans

  • Both teams to score 1+ TD in both halves is 7-4 in Titans games

  • Whenever I refer to Browns games totals, I will ignore their 3-game stretch from weeks 8-11 which were all heavily rain/wind affected, as it’s not a true reflection of the scoring (in regular/dry games)

  • Exclude those three games, BTTS 1+ TD in both halves is 6-2 in Browns games this season

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Both Teams to Score 1+ TD in both halves @ $2 (Sportsbet)*


Patriots @ Chargers

  • In 8 of the 11 Chargers games, both teams have scored 20+

  • Tied-4th in the league

  • Only 5 of the 11 Patriots games, both teams have scored 20+, but… 4 out of 5 in road games.

  • In 5 of the 6 Chargers indoor games this season, both teams have scored 20+ points

  • Model likes it: 24-26

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)*


Jaguars @ Vikings

  • In 9 of the 11 Vikings games, both teams have scored 20+

  • Tied-most in the league

  • In 7 of the 11 Jags games, both teams have scored 20+

  • Tied-8th most in the league

  • Model likes it: 23-27

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $2 (Sportsbet)*


Rams @ Cardinals

  • Rams are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS against the Cardinals since McVay’s first year

  • More relatively though, 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS against Kingsbury. Wins of 27 and 7 last season

  • Rams are 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS in road divisional games under McVay

  • Cardinals are 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS in divisional games under Kingsbury

  • Model likes it: Rams by 5.5

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Rams -2.5 @ $1.92 (Topsport) - $2 on Topsport Promo Lines


Giants @ Seahawks

  • Giants have scored 20+ Team Total Points in 6 of their last 7 games

  • 19 in the other

  • In 9 of the Seahawks 11 games, both teams have scored 20+

  • Giants are 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS in road games this season

  • All games decided by 4 points or less

  • Seattle are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in home games.

  • All games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Potential flat spot – Seattle are 5-3 SU, 2-6 in games where they are home favourites of 7+ points.

Notes: This was typed on Friday, and since, Giants QB Daniel Jones has been listed as doubtful. We were looking at Giants +10.5 and BTTS 20+, but we will wait on the game-time decision on the QB.


* indicates that bet was posted on Twitter on Saturday.


Player Props – 1 Unit Unless Stated Otherwise


1.5 Units - Baker Mayfield (Browns) Over 223.5 Passing Yards @ $1.87 (TAB)

  • Mayfield has only achieved this in 4 games this season… but

  • Titans have conceded this number in 9 of 11 games (Jackson, Lock)

  • Should be high scoring

Sam Darnold (Jets) Over 220.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • A bit like Mayfield, Darnold hasn’t achieved this mark often (1 from 7)

  • Raiders have conceded this number in 8 games (Newton, Mayfield, Ryan)

David Montgomery (Bears) Over 63.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.87 (TAB)

  • We’ve played him a few times this year, and has been money for us

  • Lions have conceded this number to 10 Backs so far this season

James Robinson (Jags) Over 75.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

  • Robinson has 96.2% of Jags RB rushing attempts this season

  • Vikings concede 102.2 rush yards to RB’s this season

  • Vikings have conceded 76+ rushing yards to RB’s in 8 games this season

Derek Carr (Raiders) Over 252.5 Passing Yards @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • Jets concede the 3rd most gross passing yards to QB’s (291.5)

  • Jets have conceded o252.5 in 7 games

  • RB Jacobs is out

  • Carr has gone over this total on 7 occasions this season

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Bet365)

  • Since his first start in Week 3, Jefferson has gone over this total in 6 game (out of 9)

  • Since Week 3, Jefferson has had a 42.31% target share among WR’s

  • Jags concede the 5th most receiving yards to WR’s (187.2)

Players to Score a Touchdown (0.5 Units each)

  • DaVante Parker (Dolphins) @ $2.50 (TAB/SB)

  • Adam Thielen (Vikings) @ $1.95 (Pointsbet)

  • Michael Thomas (Saints) @ $3 (TAB)

  • Allen Robinson (Bears) @ $2.40 (TAB/SB)

  • T.J Hockenson (Lions) @ $3.60 (SB)

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Odds are correct as of 14:45 – 6th of December 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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