NFL Week 11

Packers @ Colts

  • Packers haven’t lost ATS in consecutive games under Matt LeFleur

  • 9-0 ATS after losing ATS in their previous game

  • Teams who are underdogs of 0-3 points on the road are 17-12 SU, 19-10 ATS this season

  • How I interpret this is: bookmakers/the market are still overvaluing home field advantage, despite having no crowds

  • Teams in this spot are closer than you think

  • Packers are 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS as road underdogs under Matt LeFleur

  • Our model says: Packers should be -2.5 favourites

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Packers ML @ $2.14 (Topsport)*

Eagles @ Browns

  • Another wet day in Ohio. 41f and raining

  • 7 of the Eagles 9 (77.78%) games have been decided by 10 points or less – 7th most in the league

  • 4 from 4 on the road

  • Only 4 of the Browns games have been decided by 10 points or less this season – Tied-9th least

  • 3 from 4 at home though

  • Model likes it: Browns by 2

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Either Team by Under @ $1.71 (Pointsbet)

Steelers @ Jags

  • Some of the best bets you’ll ever make, are the hardest ones to make… so be prepared

  • Steelers are 7-3 SU, 1-9 ATS when favourites of 10+ points on the road under Mike Tomlin

  • Perfect flat spot for the Steelers here. Divisional win last week, big favourites on the road, and who do they play next week? They have the Ravens on a short week on Thursday night. They could come out flat.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Jags +10.5 @ $1.91 (Topsport)*

Patriots @ Texans

  • Only 2 of the Texans games this season have gone below 48.5, and one of them was last week @ Cleveland in the worst weather any game has seen this season

  • Exclude that game, and Texans game average 54.38 points per game

  • Only 3 of the Patriots games have gone over 48.5, but playing under a roof will certainly bump this

  • Season average = 44.44

  • Model says: 53 points scored

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Over 48.5 @ 1.90 (Bet365)*

* indicates posted on Twitter on Friday

Player Props – 1 unit each

Adrian Peterson (Lions) TD @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

  • Panthers have conceded the 3rd most touchdowns to Running Backs in 2020 (12)

  • I originally liked De’Andre Swift in this spot, but with him ruled out due to concussion we're looking at Peterson, who has 51.1% of the team Red Zone carries, so I’m more than happy to make the play.

Damien Harris (Patriots) Over 65.5 Rushing Yards @ $2 (TAB)

  • Texans have concede the most rushing yards to Running Backs in the league, and it’s not even close. 154.3, next most is 126.6.

  • 102, 71, 121, last 3 games

  • I like his yards, over touchdown here, as the Patriots tend to use the big-bodied Newton to crash over the goal-line.

Kalen Ballage (Chargers) TD @ $2.10 (Topsport Player Bets)

  • Ballage has taken over this backfield, with 11 Red Zone carries in his last 2 games. The next best for the Chargers is 1 (Kelley)

  • Jets conceded the 8th most touchdowns to Running Backs with 1 per game. With the Chargers being heavy favourites, I’ll take $2+

Terry McLaurin (Washington) Over 74.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

  • McLaurin has reached this mark in 6 of his 9 games this season.

  • Clear #1 Wide Receiver. Has 27.05% of team targets. WR with the next most is 8.21%.

  • Playing yards, over touchdown, because I don’t trust this Washington side to put up points.

  • Bengals concede the 9th most yards to WR’s, and have conceded the number in 6 of their 9 games.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Over 59.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.87 (TAB/Pointsbet)

  • When it comes to Wide Receivers in Minnesota, I only care about Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson – 28.63% and 22.91% team target share respectively. Next best WR is 4.85%.

  • Thielen will hurt you in the end zone, Jefferson will between the 20s. Jefferson 762 yards, 3 TD’s. Thielen 523, 9.

  • Cowboys concede 175.1 yards per game to Wide Receivers, and with Jefferson getting 46% of Wide Receiver targets, it won’t take much to clear this number.

Amari Cooper (Cowboys) Over 55.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (TAB/Pointsbet)

  • Since Prescott got injured, Cooper has cleared this line in 3 of the 4 games.

  • Cooper leads the team in targets (21.35% team target share).

  • Vikings have conceded this number to 12 receivers in their 9 games this season.

Hayden Hurst (Falcons) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

  • At Tight End for the Falcons, its Hurst or no one. Hurst has 55 of the 61 Tight End targets for the Falcons (90.16%), and has the third most total team targets (15.72%)

  • Hurst has cleared this number in 6 of his 9 games this season, each in the last 4 also

  • Saints conceded 53.2 yards to the TE position

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Odds are correct as of 16:25 – 22nd of November 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.