Packers @ Colts
Packers haven’t lost ATS in consecutive games under Matt LeFleur
9-0 ATS after losing ATS in their previous game
Teams who are underdogs of 0-3 points on the road are 17-12 SU, 19-10 ATS this season
How I interpret this is: bookmakers/the market are still overvaluing home field advantage, despite having no crowds
Teams in this spot are closer than you think
Packers are 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS as road underdogs under Matt LeFleur
Our model says: Packers should be -2.5 favourites
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Packers ML @ $2.14 (Topsport)*
Eagles @ Browns
Another wet day in Ohio. 41f and raining
7 of the Eagles 9 (77.78%) games have been decided by 10 points or less – 7th most in the league
4 from 4 on the road
Only 4 of the Browns games have been decided by 10 points or less this season – Tied-9th least
3 from 4 at home though
Model likes it: Browns by 2
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Either Team by Under @ $1.71 (Pointsbet)
Steelers @ Jags
Some of the best bets you’ll ever make, are the hardest ones to make… so be prepared
Steelers are 7-3 SU, 1-9 ATS when favourites of 10+ points on the road under Mike Tomlin
Perfect flat spot for the Steelers here. Divisional win last week, big favourites on the road, and who do they play next week? They have the Ravens on a short week on Thursday night. They could come out flat.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Jags +10.5 @ $1.91 (Topsport)*
Patriots @ Texans
Only 2 of the Texans games this season have gone below 48.5, and one of them was last week @ Cleveland in the worst weather any game has seen this season
Exclude that game, and Texans game average 54.38 points per game
Only 3 of the Patriots games have gone over 48.5, but playing under a roof will certainly bump this
Season average = 44.44
Model says: 53 points scored
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Over 48.5 @ 1.90 (Bet365)*
* indicates posted on Twitter on Friday
Player Props – 1 unit each
Adrian Peterson (Lions) TD @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)
Panthers have conceded the 3rd most touchdowns to Running Backs in 2020 (12)
I originally liked De’Andre Swift in this spot, but with him ruled out due to concussion we're looking at Peterson, who has 51.1% of the team Red Zone carries, so I’m more than happy to make the play.
Damien Harris (Patriots) Over 65.5 Rushing Yards @ $2 (TAB)
Texans have concede the most rushing yards to Running Backs in the league, and it’s not even close. 154.3, next most is 126.6.
102, 71, 121, last 3 games
I like his yards, over touchdown here, as the Patriots tend to use the big-bodied Newton to crash over the goal-line.
Kalen Ballage (Chargers) TD @ $2.10 (Topsport Player Bets)
Ballage has taken over this backfield, with 11 Red Zone carries in his last 2 games. The next best for the Chargers is 1 (Kelley)
Jets conceded the 8th most touchdowns to Running Backs with 1 per game. With the Chargers being heavy favourites, I’ll take $2+
Terry McLaurin (Washington) Over 74.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)
McLaurin has reached this mark in 6 of his 9 games this season.
Clear #1 Wide Receiver. Has 27.05% of team targets. WR with the next most is 8.21%.
Playing yards, over touchdown, because I don’t trust this Washington side to put up points.
Bengals concede the 9th most yards to WR’s, and have conceded the number in 6 of their 9 games.
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Over 59.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.87 (TAB/Pointsbet)
When it comes to Wide Receivers in Minnesota, I only care about Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson – 28.63% and 22.91% team target share respectively. Next best WR is 4.85%.
Thielen will hurt you in the end zone, Jefferson will between the 20s. Jefferson 762 yards, 3 TD’s. Thielen 523, 9.
Cowboys concede 175.1 yards per game to Wide Receivers, and with Jefferson getting 46% of Wide Receiver targets, it won’t take much to clear this number.
Amari Cooper (Cowboys) Over 55.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (TAB/Pointsbet)
Since Prescott got injured, Cooper has cleared this line in 3 of the 4 games.
Cooper leads the team in targets (21.35% team target share).
Vikings have conceded this number to 12 receivers in their 9 games this season.
Hayden Hurst (Falcons) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
At Tight End for the Falcons, its Hurst or no one. Hurst has 55 of the 61 Tight End targets for the Falcons (90.16%), and has the third most total team targets (15.72%)
Hurst has cleared this number in 6 of his 9 games this season, each in the last 4 also
Saints conceded 53.2 yards to the TE position
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Odds are correct as of 16:25 – 22nd of November 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.