NFL - Week 11

Texans @ Ravens

  • Since 2018, both teams have scored 20+ in 9 of the 13 Texans’ road games since 2018, including 8 of the last 9.

  • Texans have scored 20+ in 11 of their 13 road games since 2018, including in their last 8

  • Baltimore have scored 20+ in each of Lamar Jackson’s 16 regular season wins

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $1.92 (Pointsbet)

Falcons @ Panthers

  • Under is 9-2-1 in games between these two teams since 2013

  • Average 43.08, Median 37.5

  • Under is 8-3-2 in Falcons road divisional games under Dan Quinn

  • Average 48.46, Median 45

  • Under is 14-4-1 in Panthers home divisional games since 2013

  • Average 39.95, Median 38

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 49.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

Jets @ Redskins

  • Dwayne Haskins has thrown for 27/44, 284 yards, 0/4 TD/INT, and a QBR of 15.5... and the Redskins have put up a total of 12 points in the 8 quarters of Haskins playing. I don’t see that changing too much this weekend.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Redskins under 20.5 Team Points @ 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Cardinals @ 49ers

  • These two teams played AT Arizona only 2 weeks ago, and the 49ers were 10 point favourites. Assuming home field advantage is somewhere between 2-3 points, this game should be set at 49ers -14 to -16, but the line is -10. This seems like a massive overreaction to the Cardinals covering their initial match. No trends; more of a market overreaction play, here.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – 49ers -9.5 @ $1.88 (BetEasy)

Patriots @ Eagles

  • Under is 15-6 in Patriots’ road games since 2017

  • Average 43.62, Median 41

  • Under Doug Pederson, Under is 19-9 in Eagles home games

  • Average 42.21, Median 40.5

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Unit – Under 44.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

Chiefs v Chargers (MNF)

  • Since 2015, the Chiefs are 23-3 SU, 17-9 ATS against divisional opponents

  • 13-1 SU, 11-3 ATS on the road

  • Chiefs are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS against Chargers since 2015

  • 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS on the road

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chiefs -4 @ $1.95 (TopSport/TAB)

All above plays were posted on Twitter Saturday Night.

Player Props

I have got a little more extra time to write this preview, so I’ll elaborate as to why I like each player prop – a bet type that is probably my strongest at the moment. Please note that all player props will be “1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer” unless stated otherwise

Michael Thomas – WR - Saints @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

Michael Thomas equates to 30.8% of team targets (1st in the NFL) and has the 3rd most red zone targets in the league (15), so he will get his opportunities. The Bucs have given up the equal most passing touchdowns to Wide Receivers in the league (15), and have conceded at least one touchdown to a Wide Receiver in 8 of their 9 games.

0.5 Units – Courtland Sutton – WR – Broncos @ $4 (Sportsbet/TAB)

In the two weeks without Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos have thrown the ball to Sutton 14 times (and 10 times to other Wide Receivers). There is a common perception that the Vikings have a very good defence, but if there is one chink to their armour, it’s defending against Wide Receivers – conceding 15 receiving touchdowns to WR’s (tied for most in the league). The only thing that’s stopping me from making this a full 1 unit play is the questions around the Quarterback play of Brandon Allen.

John Brown – WR – Bills - Over 60.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.85 (TAB)

John Brown has been one of the most consistent receivers in the league this season, without having a very high ceiling. He’s catching for 75.55 yards per game, and has caught for over 50 in all 9 games, including for over 60 in 7 of them. Miami have conceded 60+ receiving yards to at least one Wide Receiver in 7 of their 9 games this season, including the 83 yards Brown put on them in week 7. I’ve opted to go for yards instead of touchdowns in this bet, mainly due to the fact that Brown has only two touchdowns this season, and the Bills have only thrown for 10 touchdowns this season (26th in the league).

0.5 Units - Jared Cook – TE – Saints @ $4.25 (BetEasy) – Will quote $3.60 @ Sportsbet because the BetEasy price will come crashing down.

After missing two weeks due to injury, Jared Cook returned seeing 10 targets for 73 yards. The Bucs have given up the equal 3rd most touchdowns to Tight Ends this season, including one to Cook in their Week 5 game.

Brian Hill – RB – Falcons @ $2.30 (Ladbrokes)

Not many, including myself, know much about Brian Hill – a guy that Google tells me only 295 career rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. But what I do know is that his opponent this week – the Panthers – have conceded the most touchdowns to Running Backs this season with 17, and with leading backs Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith out injured, this presents a huge opportunity to cash in. DVOA also have the Panthers ranked dead-last in run defence this season, and it doesn’t even seem close according to the metric. Situational play.

George Kittle – TE – 49ers @ $3.25 (Sportsbet)

Let me firstly just say, George Kittle is officially listed as “doubtful” for this game as he’s still carrying and ankle injury sustained from the 49ers’ Week 9 game against the same opponent – the Cardinals. So if he doesn’t play, this bet will be refunded. BUT… if he does play, I see no reason why the 49ers wouldn’t treat him as fully-healthy. Considering the 49ers’ offence looked quite mediocre in last week’s loss to the Seahawks, I think Kittle will get his fair share of targets. Speaking of targets, Kittle has the most of them on the 49ers’ roster (minus Emmanuel Sanders who played the first 7 games with the Broncos). No team has conceded more touchdowns to Tight Ends this season than the Cardinals – 10 from 10 games, so this is a great spot for Kittle if he is to play.

Side note: If Kittle isn’t active, I’d be looking to potentially play backup Tight End, Ross Dwelley to find the end zone. Jimmy Garoppolo showed that he isn’t shy in throwing to the back up, targeting him 7 times last week.

Player Prop odds are correct as of 13:15, Sunday 17th November, 2019. Odds are subject to change.

NFL YTD: 77-70, +24.765u (16.87 ROI%)

Good luck, and happy punting!