NFL Week 10

Intro notes: Just like in Week 8, it’s important to take note of the weather across the league for this week. Numerous games (mainly Jags @ Packers, Texans @ Browns, Bengals @ Steelers, and a couple of others) will be heavily impacted weather, so make sure to check before placing your bets.

Texans @ Browns

  • Browns are 7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS in their last 9 home games

  • 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS as favourites

  • In games as favourites, 6 of these games were won by 1-14

  • Texans are 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS in road games as underdogs since 2019

  • 5 of the losses by 14 points or less

  • This is one of the games that will be affected by weather – predominately wind and rain. The Browns played in similar conditions 2 weeks ago, and the Texans are a dome team. This will advantage the Browns.

  • Model says: Browns by 5

  • I liked Browns -3 at the start of the week, but the current number is making me look for value elsewhere.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Browns win + Texans +14.5 @ $2.30 (Sportsbet SGM)

Washington @ Lions

  • Washington are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS in road games in 2020

  • Have top-respect for Washington QB Alex Smith for coming back after his horrific injury I think he’s a downgrade from Kyle Allen, with his 16.4 (!!!) total QBR in 2020

  • A bit like the Chargers, I don’t trust the Lions to put the foot on the throat of their opponents and extend their leads, so I’ll be looking at the first half only here.

  • Lions are 5-3 ATS in 1st halves, Washington are 1-8 ATS

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Detroit 2.5 1st Half @ $1.90 (Bet365)

Eagles @ Giants

  • The Eagles have absolutely owned the Giants in recent years, 8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS under Doug Pederson

  • 7 wins by 1-7

  • Giants are 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS in home games this season

  • 3 losses by 1-10

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Eagles by 1-14 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)

Bucs @ Panthers

  • If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the 2020 Panthers, it’s that they’re tough. Under their first year of Matt Rhule, they haven’t been beaten by more than 2 scores this season

  • 8 of their 9 games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • Bucs have been a bit of a mix bag this season, having won 4 games by 10+ and losing 2 by 10+, you don’t know what you’re going to get. So this isn’t a large stake compared to previous weeks.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.85 (Pointsbet)

49ers @ Saints

  • Since 2019, 49ers are 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS as underdogs in the regular season

  • For those who have followed us throughout this season, you’ll know that we think the Saints are overrated. Yes, they are 6-2, the record of a great team, but with only one win by more than two scores, we think they still miss that killer instinct that we’ve grown accustomed to in the past. One team got pumped on national TV (49ers), and the other looked unbeatable on national TV (Saints) last week. You won’t find a bigger polarising perception between two teams playing against each other.

  • Saints are 14-7 SU, 7-14 ATS as home favourites since 2018

  • Model says Saints by 4.5

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – 49ers +9.5 @ $1.94 (Sportsbet)

Broncos @ Raiders

  • 6 of the 8 Broncos games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 6 of the 8 Raiders games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 6 of the 8 Raiders divisional games have been decided by 10 points or less since 2019

  • Both games against Broncos

  • 5 of the 8 Broncos divisional games have been decided by 10 points or less since 2019

  • 5-0 against teams NOT names Kansas City

Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.77 (Pointsbet)

Player Props – 1 Unit – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (unless stated otherwise)

1.5 Units - Antonio Gibson (Washington) @ $2.25 (Pointsbet)

  • Lions have conceded the most touchdowns to RB’s in 2020 (15)

  • Gibson has the most red zone carries for Washington

1 Unit – Cooper Kupp @ $2.30 (Sportsbet) 1.5 Units – Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

  • Seahawks concede the most catches, yards, and touchdowns to the slot position

  • Kupp has the 5th most receiving yards from the Slot in 2020

Jarvis Landry (Browns) @ $3 (Sportsbet)

  • Texans have conceded the tied-third most touchdowns to Receivers this season (13)

  • Landry had only 1 red zone target in 6 games before OBJ’s injury. Landry has had 7 in 2 games since.

Evan Engram (Giants) @ $3.40 (Pointsbet)

  • Eagles have conceded the tied-3rd most touchdowns to Tight Ends in 2020 (6)

  • Evan Engram has THE most red zone carries/targets for the Giants in 2020

TJ Hockenson (Lions) @ $2.50 (Sportsbet)

  • Washington have conceded the tied-3rd most touchdowns to Tight Ends in 2020 (6)

  • Hockenson has the 2nd most RZ targets for the Lions

Eric Ebron (Steelers) @ $3 (Sportsbet)

  • Bengals have conceded the tied-3rd most touchdowns to Tight Ends in 2020 (6)

  • Ebron is the tied-third most targeted Steeler in the Red Zone

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Odds are correct as of 20:05 – 15th of November 2020 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.