NFL Week 1

Steelers @ Bills

- Buffalo were 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS in all games played at home in 2020

- 8 of the 9 wins were by 1-14

- 9 of the 10 games were decided by 10 points (win or loss)

- Pittsburgh went 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS as underdogs in 2020

- 4 of the 5 games were decided by 10 points (win or loss)

- Model says Bills by 5. Was tempted to play the Steelers +, but I don’t see either team winning big here, so I feel like I’m buying a few points.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.80 (Pointsbet)

Broncos @ Giants

- This is a bad matchup for the Giants, I have the Giants having a bottom-three O-Line, and the Broncos having a top 5 defence (I’m serious). Behind a bad O-Line, I’m tipping Barkley’s going to have it rough, and when Daniel Jones is forced to pass, he’s going to have it even rougher. I think the market generally overrates the Broncos, but fast-forward 3 weeks and they could be 3-0 (Giants, Jags, Jets).

- Giants went 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS as home underdogs in 2020

- Average result: -8.25 points

- All of Denver’s wins (5) were won by under 10 points

- I think narrowing the margin will give us better value, as we’re avoiding the most common key-number of 3 – which happens about 10% of games where the line is between 2.5-3.5 – and I don’t think either team blows this out in a low scoring game.

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Unit – Denver by 1-21 (Denver win + Giants +21.5 SGM) @ $1.98 (Pointsbet)

49ers @ Lions

- The market is high on the 49ers, and they couldn’t be much lower on the Lions, and it seems every man and his dog are on the 49ers. This summary has me feeling uneasy, as betting just isn’t that simple… but there’s a lot of merit to it.

- This Lions team have downgraded at the QB position, probably – who am I kidding – they have the worst receiving corps in the league, a terrible secondary; oh, and they recruited Anthony Lynn.

- This is a mismatch wherever you look. Anthony Lynn vs Kyle Shanahan, Detroit’s no-name offence vs a healthy 49ers D.

- I hate betting anything over a touchdown but I’m not worried about going through the key numbers in this game (7) in this game as I’m predicting this to be the largest margin for the week. 49ers 35-13

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – 49ers -8.5 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)

Browns @ Chiefs

- Chiefs are 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 ATS in September since Mahomes’ first start

- Over is 7-2-1

- In these games, a Chiefs/Over 6-point teaser is an insane 10-0. If you’re unfamiliar with this term, it means if you “give” 6 points to the Chiefs line and also subtract 6 off the game total over/under, this has won all 10 times.

- This makes sense too. Andy Reid is notorious for winning in week 1 and after the bye. Why? Because he’s an offensive genius who has spent an additional amount of time (in this case, 7 months) making up plays that will have the opposing defences unprepared. Strong correlation with the over because the Chiefs success is directly tied with how many points they score, not how many they stop (on defence).

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Chiefs +0.5 & Over 48.5 @ $2 (Sportsbet)

-- Player Props --

1.25 Units – DJ Moore (Panthers) Over 57.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

- Had over this number in 10 of his 15 games last season

- The most experienced Cornerback on the Jets’ roster has played 7 games, I’d be gob-smacked if the Panthers didn’t exploit this

1.5 Units – Antonio Gibson (Washington) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.20 (TAB)

- As discussed in our Futures Bets article, Washington had the highest run:pass ratio when deep in scoring distance in the league

- Antonio Gibson will be a prolific back this year, I doubt we’ll see anything close to $2 for him to punch it in for too much longer

1.5 Units – James Robinson (Jaguars) Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

- The Jags won’t come in favourites too often this season, but they come up against the worst roster in the league.

- Robinson’s load was questioned in the off-season, but when Rookie Travis Etienne got injured, Robinson will be the all-feature back once again in 2021.

- Robinson scored in 8 of his 14 games last season

2 Units – Ryan Tannehill (Titans) 2+ Touchdown Passes @ 1.80 (TAB)

- Tannehill has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 13 of his 14 regular season games at home as the Titans starting Quarterback

- According to my rankings, the Cardinals have the 3rd worst set of Corner backs in the league. AJ Brown and Julio Jones should feast.

1 Unit – Michael Pittman (Colts) Over 49.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.90 (TAB)

- If I had to choose one player in the league to double their output from last season, it would be Michael Pittman (503 receiving yards in 2020).

- With TY Hilton (most Colts targets in 2020), Pittman and to a lesser extent, Zach Pascal should see a lot more opportunities in 2021.

- Great matchup for Pittman in week 1, coming up a Seahawks defence who conceded the most receiving yards to WR’s in 2020.

1 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 Receiving Yards + Adam Thielen TD @ $4.60 (Ladbrokes)

- I explained how that in 2020 Jefferson’s speed was being utilised between the 20s, and that Thielen was being used in tight spaces in the red zone. We made a lot of cash betting this in 2020, and with the Vikings not adding depth to their WR line-up, we’re going back to the well

- Happened 8 times in 13 starts together in 2020.

- Will look to bet this frequently for at least the first month, regardless of outcome, unless we see something that should suggest otherwise.