NFL (Super) Wild Card Weekend Part 1

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Colts @ Bills

  • Bills are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home in 2020

  • Only loss was to Chiefs

  • 6 of the 8 games were wins by 1-14

  • Small sample size, but Colts are 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS as underdogs in 2020

  • Both losses were by 1-14

  • I really liked playing the Bills by 1-14 in this spot. But, on a hunch, I looked up a stat in my database, and it’s a cracker…

  • Trend of the week: Outdoor teams (i.e. the Bills) playing Indoor teams (i.e. the Colts) in home playoff games are 22-4 SU, 19-6-1 ATS since 2008

  • Average result +11.31

  • To make things worse for the Colts, we’re forecasted for 26 degrees… and no I’m not talking in Celsius.

  • When deciding which bet to make (between Bills -6.5 and Bills 1-14, the question I asked myself was: “What’s more likely to ruin my bet? Bills winning by 1-6, or Bills winning by 15+?” I think Bills blowing out the Colts is more likely than winning by under a TD, considering that I like the Bills in this game. Let’s hope we’ve chosen correctly!

  • Model has a slight agreement, -6.72. But this doesn’t count for the weather advantage, which is huge in my opinion.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Bills -6.5 @ $1.97 (Topsport). Also $2 Topsport Promo

Rams @ Seahawks

  • Since Sean McVay took over the Rams in 2017, 5 of the 8 games against Seattle have been by under 10 points. All of the 5 by 7 or under too

  • Another game was by 11 (you know, when we bet ETU 10.5 two weeks ago…?)

  • 16 of Seattle’s 23 divisional games since 2017 have been decided by 10 points or less

  • All 6 of Rams’ divisional games this season have been decided by 11 points or less

  • I know, I know, we’re betting under 10.5, but all games have been close-ish

  • 13 of Seattle’s games this season have been decided by 10 points or less

  • 2nd most in the league

  • When writing this, I thought we’d get better odds than the $1.70 we got two weeks ago, and was ready to launch into another 3 Unit play.

  • Reduced odds = reduced value = reduced stake.

Recommended Bet: It’s a no play, for now…

Bucs @ Washington

  • Don’t look now, but Washington are 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS with Alex Smith under center

  • Washington +6 pt line/under teaser is 11-5 this season

  • Model says: Bucs 20-24

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Washington +14 / Under 51 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)

Ravens @ Titans

  • Titans are 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS as underdogs with Ryan Tannehill as QB

  • 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS this season

  • I think the Ravens are the biggest flat track bullies in the league

  • 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS against teams with a losing record

  • 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS against teams with a winning record

  • 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS as favourites

  • Gobsmacked that they’re 3+ point favourites @ Titans

  • Model says: Ravens -0.5 favourites

  • Ravens are 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS in playoff games under Lamar Jackson

  • 17-23 vs Chargers, 12-28 vs Titans

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Titans +3.5 @ $1.87 (Topsport)

Bears @ Saints

  • Each of the last 8 Saints playoffs games have been decided by 1-10, dating all the way back to 2011

  • After the Saints didn’t make the playoffs between 2014-2016, the Saints are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in playoff games

  • 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS as the higher seed

  • Bears are 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS on the road this season

  • 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS as underdogs

  • Amazing stat for a playoff team: The bears have been underdogs in 13 games this season

  • 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS

  • Underdogs of more than 7 points in the playoffs are 15-27 SU, 24-17-1 ATS

  • Model says Saints by 7.9

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Bears +10.5 @ $1.81 (Topsport)

Browns @ Steelers

  • The Browns haven’t won at Pittsburgh since… (wait for it) 2003!

  • 17 games in a row… that’s a WHOLE season’s worth

  • Mike Tomlin is 14-0 SU, 8-6 ATS against the Browns at home

  • It’s unfair to look too far back in terms of trends when it comes to the Browns, because this is a new era. But even since 2019…

  • The Browns are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in road divisional games

  • In that same span, the Steelers are 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS

  • I liked the Steelers -3.5 opening line, and it grew to 4. And with news that the Browns will be missing their HEAD COACH (yes, I’m serious), other line coaches and numerous players. This seems like a smash spot even at -6. No, these outs shouldn’t be the only reason why you play a line (that has moved accordingly), but I already liked it… and our model says the Steelers should be -7.5 even without the outs. The fact that they’ll be missing key personnel while we’re still under that number, well that’s just an added bonus.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Steelers -5.5 @ $1.92 (Topsport)

Odds are correct as of 18:30 Thursday 7th January, 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change