NFL Kickoff - Texans @ Chiefs

Updated: Sep 11

NFL is back! Do we need any further introduction?

I reckon 1H - UNDERs will be a great bet early in the season, especially in prime time games. But I'll admit it, I'm scared. I'm scared to take on a Chiefs team that has rolled through the month of September in the last few years. I'm scared to take on a Chiefs team that throws the ball more at a way higher rate in first halves than any other team in the league - 69% (next highest is 65%).

This offence seems to click early in the season, and they inflict as much scoreboard damage early as possible.

My first instinct was to play the under, but like I said, I'm too scared to take it on in this matchup.

Looking elsewhere.

New Texans RB David Johnson finds himself in a very favourable matchup here. If the Texans are down 21-0, obviously Johnson won't get too many looks. But if the Texans can make a game of this, he'll be up against a defence that gave up the 2nd most offensive yards to backs last year (167.9!!!!), and with DeAndre Hopkins being shipped the other way, Bill O'Brien would love to show off his new fancy toy to the world in the Kickoff game. This makes too much sense, here.

Relevant trends:

  • From Week 11 onwards, the Chiefs were 9-0 SU & ATS

  • The Chiefs are 12-0 SU, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 3 Septembers

  • Average 33.5 Team Points

  • Over is 9-3

  • BTTS 20+ is 10-2

  • BTTS 20+ is 12-5 in Texans road games in the last two seasons (inc. playoffs)

  • Underdogs of 8 or more points are 6-22 SU, 21-7 ATS in week 1 games since 2006

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – David Johnson Over 71.5 Rush/Rec Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

- 0.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 20+ @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)

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