NFL Conference Championship Weekend

(If you would like to support The Trend Bettor, please feel free to donate via the link below. All donations, no matter how big or how small, are greatly appreciated.) https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/TheTrendBettorPtyLtd


Bucs @ Packers

  • Packers are 18-2 SU, 12-6 ATS at home under Matt Lefeur

  • 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS against teams who finished 8-8 or better

  • 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS in playoffs

  • Since 1986, there have been 15 occasions where an NFL team have played 3 road playoff games in a row (Bucs), and they are 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS in the third game

  • Since 2013-2014 playoffs, home teams are 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS in conference championship games.

  • Bucs are 8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS on the road this season

  • 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS against winning teams (Saints all 3 times)

  • I hate taking -3.5. If it was -2.5 it’s probably a 3-unit play. But it’s not, so it’s not…

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Packers -3.5 @ $1.91 (Pointsbet)


Player Props:

- 1 Unit - Leonard Fournette (Bucs) Over 42.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88 (Sportsbet & Ladbrokes) - 0.5 Units – Leonard Fournette (Bucs) 25+ Rushing Yards & TD @ $2.82 (Pointsbet)

  • Fournette has had 25+ Rush Yards & 1+ TD in 4 of his last 5 games

  • Fournette has had over 42.5 Rush Yards in 3 of his last 5 games

  • Was rested at HT in one of these game due to leading by 34 points at HT

  • Packers concede the 4th most touchdowns to RB’s this season (1.3 per game)

  • Akers had 90 rush yards and a TD vs Packers last week

1 Unit – Rob Gronkowski (Bucs) Under 29.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 (Topsport)

  • Packers concede the 7th least receiving yards to TE’s in the league (44.5)

  • Gronkowski has been used more of a blocking Tight End of late

  • Gronkowski has only gone over 29.5 once in his last 6 games

  • Fellow TE Brate has gone over 29.5 3 times in this time

Bills @ Chiefs

  • Since 2013-2014 playoffs, home teams are 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS in conference championship games.

  • In games in which Patrick Mahomes has started, the Chiefs are 7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS at home this season

  • 6 wins by 1-17

  • In each of Mahomes last 8 starts, the Chiefs have won by under 7 points

  • The Bills have scored 25+ points in 13 games this season (most)

  • The Chiefs have scored 25+ points in 12 games this season (tied-2nd most)

  • Over is 5-1-2 in Bills road games this season

  • Average 54, Average +/- of O/U = +4.88

  • Over is 3-4-1 in Chiefs home games this season (With Mahomes)

  • Average 50.75, Average +/- of O/U = -0.88

Recommended Bets: - 1.5 Units – Chiefs 1-17 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet SGM) - 0.5 Units – Both Teams to Score 25+ @ $2.62 (Sportsbet)


Player Props


1 Unit – Travis Kelce 75+ Receiving Yards + TD @ $2.32 (Pointsbet)

  • Kelce has achieved this in 4 of his last 5 games

  • 68 & 1 in the one he missed

  • Bills concede the 2nd most receiving yards to TE’s in the league

  • And tied-12th most touchdowns (0.5)

1 Unit – Allen Over 302.5 & Mahomes Over 305.5 @ $3.50 (Sportsbet SGM)

  • According to @BenBBaldwin, the Bills (+14% pass rate over expected) and Chiefs (+11%) are the two most pass-heavy teams in the league, respectively

  • Although these two teams have “okay” pass-defences, I expect this to be an old-fashioned sling-off. Both of these teams know that they’ll need to pass the ball in order to win… I mean that’s kind of why the two most pass-heavy teams are playing in the AFC Championship game… Why change now?


Odds are correct as of 16:25 Sunday 24th of January 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly!