Extended Player Prop Preview – Richmond v North Melbourne
For those who have followed me for a while, you should be accustomed to my rule of betting a maximum 3 of units on any given game. This rule is stricter when outcomes are correlated, E.g total points, team total points, lines, head to head. But I’m going to break this rule on this certain occasion, because I think there are a lot of great spots in this game for a few player props – which are generally not correlated to other players. I wouldn’t be doing it justice to just put only 1 unit on each all the way up to my usual-maximum 3 for a game, because I like these plays more than the typical 1 unit play.
Anyways, I’m going to stop justifying myself, and get into it.
-- Jayden Short
Remember what I said last night about Darcy Parish?
Bookmakers can often be slow, or don’t adjust enough when a player gets a new role. The first week almost always provides us with the greatest opportunity.
Well, we may have missed the ‘first week’, but with Bachar Houli opting not to fly out to the hub, a huge opportunity has presented itself to Jayden Short.
When I’m studying player props, I generally prioritise betting around a “role” over a player. This is due to the fact that no matter how good of a player someone is, if their role within the team doesn’t allow them to flourish, they can be severely limited in terms of statistics.
I apply this prioritising method in all of the “territorial” sports that I cover – AFL, NRL, and NRL. I’ll give you one example of each across another sport.
As a lot of readers know, one of my favourite weekly NFL bets in 2019 was betting that the opposition Tight End would score at least one touchdown against the Cardinals. I bet this almost every week. By the end of the season, they had conceded 1.0 touchdown per game to that position – by far the most in the NFL – 2nd worst was 0.6.
On one particular week, the Cardinals were playing the 49ers – who had just just lost their star Tight End George Kittle due to injury at the time, and was replaced by a Tight End who had never started nor caught a touchdown before. In this game, we recommended betting that back-up Tight End Ross Dwelley would score at least one touchdown @ $4 (from memory) despite the player having never scored a touchdown before… Dwelley scored 2 touchdowns that game. I’m not telling you this little anecdote to brag about the bet itself, more to illustrate the rationale behind my player prop selections in general.
So, how does this relate to Jayden Short? With Houli out of the team, I don’t see Jayden Short as “Jayden Short”, I see a player that is playing a role that is usually filled by Bachar Houli, being played by Jayden Short. Make sense?
With all this being said, how can we take advantage of this? Bookmakers have set their over/under disposals for Jayden Short for 20.5, which is exactly how many disposals he averages in the last four weeks of footy, which makes sense in a vacuum. In these four weeks of footy, Short has had 18, 20, 18, 26 disposals; have a guess which one Houli didn’t play in?
Admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but it is worth jumping on early, before the bookies and the general public adjust to what Short’s over/under “should be” in the weeks to come.
North Melbourne concede 20+ touches to an average of 4 players per game (3rd highest in the league). I’d definitely have Short ranked in Richmond’s top 4 disposal getters in this game.
-- Jared Polec
One of my favourite plays each week, is playing wingers or half back flankers against the Tigers. Richmond welcome these somewhat “meaningless” uncontested possessions – which is why we played Jake Lloyd OVERS last week (and cashed).
Wingers/Half Back Flankers vs Richmond (vs season average)
- Sydney – Mills 29 (18.2), Lloyd 24 (23.3), Clarke 23 (18.5)
- Melbourne – Hibberd 25 (17), Salem 21 (17), Langdon 16 (21)
- St Kilda – B.Hill 19 (15.7), Billings 25 (20.7)
- Hawthorn – I.Smith 29 (20.8), Sicily 23 (18)
- Collingwood – Daicos 24 (16.2), Sidebottom 27 (24)
Polec averages 19.33 disposals this season, so even just a slight increase in performance should see us home here.
- 25, 23, 12, 23, 15, 18 disposals this season
Richmond concede 20+ touches to an average of 4.5 players per game (2nd highest in the league). I’d definitely have Polec in North’s top 4-5 in this game, behind probably Simpkin and Higgins.
-- Shai Bolton
In a lot of ways, Richmond’s 2020 looks a lot like the Richmond of 2019 – the first half of it anyway – mainly due to the sudden loss of players that are in the best 22. At round 15 last season, the Tigers were missing Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Toby Nankervis, Jack Riewoldt, Jayden Short, David Astbury - the more names I type, the more I’m double checking to see if I’m viewing last years’ injury list, or the present one, because they're almost identical. What I’m getting at though, is we’ve seen this kind of ‘shake-up’ before.
So, what happened last time, in 2019? Among many things, Shai Bolton had a role change from Half-Forward to rotating through the middle. His CBA’s went from 0-10% practically every week to 58%, 50%, 36% in rounds 16-18, before going back to the forward 50 as Richmond started to get their best 22 (and starting midfield) back. Bolton went from averaging 12.38 disposals to having 26, 29, and 22 disposals in these three weeks.
This time around, in rounds 1-6, Shai Bolton attended just 3 centres bounces in his 4 games, averaging 10.75 disposals in the process.
Last week Bolton attended 55% centre bounces, but only found the footy 14 times. Prior to last week, 77.14% of his possessions were from the forward half, last week this drastically dropped to 42.86%, indicating he has made the move from Half-Forward, back to in the middle. Although he didn’t get as much of the footy as a midfielder “should”, the low number of total stoppages (37), and the low number of centre-bounces (11) certainly didn’t help his cause.
If Bolton can maintain his CBA rate of around 55%, I’ll back him in to find more of the footy.
- 2 Units – Jayden Short Over 20.5 Disposals @ $1.97* (Ladbrokes)
- 0.5 Units – Jayden Short 25+ Disposals @ $4.25 (Pointsbet)
- 2 Units – Jared Polec Over 18.5 Disposals @ $1.87* (Bet365)
- 0.5 Units – Jared Polec 25+ Disposals @ $5.50 (Pointsbet/BetEasy)
- 1 Unit – Shai Bolton 15+ Disposals @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
- 0.5 Units – Shai Bolton 20+ Disposals @ $5 (BetEasy)
- * indicates that bets were posted on Twitter prior to this article being released.
- Shae Bolton disposal markets are few and far between. I think only Sportsbet and BetEasy have markets for him at the moment.
o Could be a good indication that we’re ahead of the game, if all goes to plan.
If you liked reading this type of player prop analysis, let me know, and I’ll try to do articles like these in the future! If you’re not a fan, that’s okay, you can still let me know as I happily take in any feedback.
Have a great day!
Odds are correct as of 13:45 18/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly