What a week we had last weekend! When it was all said and done, we walked away with +8.63 units for the week; meaning if you bet $100/unit, you pocketed $863 profit for the week. Well done to those who continue to follow The Trend Bettor, and tail our bets. Helping people win money through betting on sports is one of the main reasons as to why I do all of this.
For myself personally, last week was a big weekend in multiple ways.
Winning on the punt is always the goal here (responsibly of course), but sometimes it can take a toll. To give you some idea of the time and effort that goes into resourcing, researching and sharing the bets that I recommend: Last week I wrote 5 previews (one of which was an Extended Player Prop Preview, which I would highly recommend reading if you haven’t already) totalling over 4,500 words, and recommending 31 (!!!) different bets over the span of 4 days. All-in-all, I’d say about 15-20 hours (best guess) went into last weekend’s efforts. So, why do I do it? Because I love doing it, that’s why!
But like I said, sometimes it takes a toll. When you combine these 15-20 hours on top of the typical 40-hour work week, as well as family life, you don’t really get much down time as you’re burning the candles from all ends possible.
Why am I telling you this? I’ll be completely honest and tell you that for the first time since I started this Twitter page three and a half years ago, I am completely unmotivated to write up the usual previews when I consider the time, effort, and pride that typically go into them. I just don’t have the energy nor motivation this week.
Does this mean I’ve lost the will completely going forward? Of course not. I love doing this. But when something you love doing all of a sudden becomes a slight burden, that’s the time when you should take a mini break. And with the AFL announcing that there will be footy for 20 days straight starting next week, this seems like the perfect time to take one; so that I can come back fresh and re-energised for the footy extravaganza!
Before anyone gets concerned; I’m healthy (both mentally and physically), I’m happy, and I’m employed. You can’t ask for much more in these crazy times. So don’t worry about me, I’m genuinely fine. I’m just exhausted.
This week will most likely comprise of just the one preview (this one), where you’ll find my best two match bets, and my Thursday Night player prop plays. I’ll still most likely post more recommended bets (potentially with NRL too) throughout the weekend, but they will only be posted on Twitter via @TheTrendBettor. There will be no NRL preview this weekend.
Right, lets get into it!
Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs
- Gold Coast are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against the Bulldogs under Stuart Dew
o Loss by 9 in 2018, Win by 5 in 2019
- Western Bulldogs are 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS as favourites outside of Victoria under Luke Beveridge
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams, but with the best number well and truly missed, I reckon we’ve missed our boat on this one.
- I honestly don’t love any line/total bets in this game. I have a lean on the Suns +5.5, and Under 116.5
- Hugh Greenwood has scored 109, 103, and 109 Fantasy Points in his last 3 games, with 41.61% of his points coming from tackles.
- Greenwood is leading the league in tackles, and averages 11.2 in his last 5 games. With wet weather footy being predicted (10~mm of rain), Greenwood could go OFF!
- Going against the trendy Fantasy/Supercoach player here, but Jarrod Witts has outscored Tim English 93 v 56, 131 v 39 in their two battles. Admittedly English’s Fantasy (and general) production has drastically improved since he joined the league, and out-averages Jarrod Witts 83.6 v 69.4 this season, but I can’t help but think that the wet-weather will help Witts in two ways. The wet weather will help Witts’ hitout numbers and tackles (Witts is 18 kg heavier than English), but will also decrease English’s production in the area where he dominates most – around the ground.
- 1.25 Units – Hugh Greenwood Over 86.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.96 (Pointsbet)
- 1.25 Units – Jarrod Witts Fantasy Points v Tim English @ $1.83 (BetEasy)
- 0.5 Units – Hugh Greenwood Most Fantasy Points – Group vs Weller, Swallow, Miller, Bontempelli, Macrae, Liberatore, Daniel @ $4.50 (Ladbrokes)
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
- Under is 24-4 in Port Adelaide games played against interstate sides at Adelaide Oval at night.
o 2014-2019 Average 154 (123.2), Median 152 (121.6)
o 2014-2019 (all other games) Average 172 (137.6), Median 176 (140.8)
- Combine the two teams’ average game total points scored this season – 128.9
o Which is above the offered o/u – at a traditionally low scoring venue/time combo
Recommended Bet: 3 Units – Under 130.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
West Coast v Collingwood
- Of the 6 times these two teams have played against each other since 2017, 5 of them have been decided by 22 points or less. The other was 35
o 8, 35, 5, 16, 22, and 1
- Collingwood are 11-14-2 SU, 19-8 ATS as underdogs since 2017
- There have been 8 occasions where West Coast have been favourites of 1-10 points at Optus Stadium; 5 of the games have been decided by under 3 goals
- Collingwood have been road underdogs on 9 occasions since 2017, 6 of them have been decided by under 3 goals.
Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Either Team to Win by 19 or less @ $1.75 (TAB)
Lastly, thank you to all of you who have tweeted, DM’d, emailed, and especially donated in the past month to show your appreciation. The Trend Bettor is a FREE tipping service, so do not at all feel obliged, but if you would like to donate to show your support, you can do so via PayPal at https://www.paypal.me/TheTrendBettorPtyLtd. Any donations are greatly appreciated!
Odds are correct as of 15:00 23/07/2020 AEST. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.