Sydney are 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS as favourites of 15+ points in 2021
All have been at the SCG
Average cover margin = -18.5 points
All 4 wins have been by 1-39
Freo are 0-11 SU, 4-7 ATS as 15+ point underdogs under Justin Longmuire
Average cover margin = -7.32 points
9 of the 11 have been losses by 1-39
Model aligns with market, predicting Swans win by 21 points, making this the perfect 1-39 play.
Player Prop Analysis
As part of my preparation when placing a bet, I like to go through game by game, and a lot of the times I look so hard for angles in which to attack, I can look for something that maybe isn’t really there, and it can force a bet that makes me think in hindsight, “hmmmm, maybe I should’ve just let that go”. But every now and then, the stars align when two teams play and the betting options is comparable to a smorgasbord, where you just want to play so many different bets that it’s almost dangerous. This, my friends, is one of those occasions.
Right, let’s start with the Sydney players vs Freo.
Fremantle concede the 2nd most uncontested marks and the 4th most uncontested possessions. They generally allow teams to chip the ball around without much forward movement. When you think of Sydney outside ball winners, you can land on so many different options, so let’s go through them…
Jake Lloyd – Do I need any further introduction? He leads the league for most uncontested possessions for backmen… and that doesn’t include kick ins! He could have a monster day today.
Jordan Dawson – apart from Lloyd, Dawson is the only Swan to be in Sydney’s top 5 in terms of uncontested possessions in each of their last 4 games. 25, 25, 26, 21 possessions last 4 games.
Justin McInerney - Very much a bolter in the NAB Rising Star this kid, in my opinion. Over the last 3 rounds he has the most uncontested possessions for the Swans. 22, 22, 19, 23 last 4 games.
Now on the other side of the ball… (Note: due to the nature of the player props market, i.e. bookies likes to offer OVER player disposals, goals etc, but don’t offer as many UNDER markets, it’s a little bit harder to find bets to settle on).
Sydney concede the 2nd least uncontested possessions, the least uncontested marks, BUT concede the most contested possessions in the league.
I won’t write too much about each UNDER angle I like too in-depthly because by the time I’ve finished writing this and I wait for markets to come up, there’s a chance I’m not going to bet on this player’s Unders anyway. But this will hurt:
But could see bigger games from Fyfe and David Mundy
Fyfe could have a big game, but I’m avoiding him here due to the fact that he’d only had 25+ once in his last 5 games
David Mundy on the other hand, has had 25+ in 11 of his 17 games this season.
Recommended Player Prop bets posted on Twitter.
Absolutely nothing is guaranteed when punting, make no mistake of that. The only thing you can rely on is that with good preparation and research, you give yourself the best possible chance of making a profit. I feel good about these bets. Will they win? Who knows!? Time will tell. But no matter the outcome, I’ll know that I’ll be satisfied with my process and absolutely nothing was forced here, and I’d play the same plays if I had my time again. All that is left to do… is pray!
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