St Kilda are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Brett Ratten
Median cover of +30.5 points
Over is 5-2 in these games
Average +/- of O/U = +10.29 points
Geelong are 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2019
Over is 5-1 in these games
Average +/- of O/U = +14.71 points
Over is 4-1 in St Kilda games played at Marvel in 2021
Average +/- of O/U = +10.8 points
Geelong seems to be playing at a faster tempo in the last 3 weeks, generating total game scores of 175, 178, and 189.
Model says: Geelong by 12.5.
-- Player Prop –
We focused on Gold Coast mids against the Saints last week, as the Saints concede the 3rd most fantasy points to mids in the league.
The mids who do seem to go large against the Saints are the “Pure” midfielders. The ones who will attend centre bounces, and stoppages.
Big scores of players who fit this mould vs St Kilda in the last few weeks: Swallow 130, T Miller, T Mitchell 128, Worpel 124, Shiels 119, Wines 129, Houston 127, Merrett 121, Parish 117, Oliver 130, Petracca 124, Taranto 103.
I want to focus on Cam Guthrie…
Guthrie has attended 88% (last week), 80% and 76% of centre bounces in the last 3 weeks – season average 72% (Tied-most with Selwood for Cats midfielders)
Guthrie’s median score this season is 113.5 DT, so his form checks out too. Expect a big one.
- 1 Unit – St Kilda +18.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)
- 1.5 Units – Over 167.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
- 1.5 Units – Cam Guthrie Over 107.5 DT @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)
Odds are correct as of Friday 14th of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.