AFL - Saints v Cats

  • St Kilda are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Brett Ratten

  • Median cover of +30.5 points

  • Over is 5-2 in these games

  • Average +/- of O/U = +10.29 points

  • Geelong are 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2019

  • Over is 5-1 in these games

  • Average +/- of O/U = +14.71 points

  • Over is 4-1 in St Kilda games played at Marvel in 2021

  • Average +/- of O/U = +10.8 points

  • Geelong seems to be playing at a faster tempo in the last 3 weeks, generating total game scores of 175, 178, and 189.

  • Model says: Geelong by 12.5.

-- Player Prop –

  • We focused on Gold Coast mids against the Saints last week, as the Saints concede the 3rd most fantasy points to mids in the league.

  • The mids who do seem to go large against the Saints are the “Pure” midfielders. The ones who will attend centre bounces, and stoppages.

  • Big scores of players who fit this mould vs St Kilda in the last few weeks: Swallow 130, T Miller, T Mitchell 128, Worpel 124, Shiels 119, Wines 129, Houston 127, Merrett 121, Parish 117, Oliver 130, Petracca 124, Taranto 103.

  • I want to focus on Cam Guthrie…

  • Guthrie has attended 88% (last week), 80% and 76% of centre bounces in the last 3 weeks – season average 72% (Tied-most with Selwood for Cats midfielders)

  • Guthrie’s median score this season is 113.5 DT, so his form checks out too. Expect a big one.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – St Kilda +18.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

- 1.5 Units – Over 167.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

- 1.5 Units – Cam Guthrie Over 107.5 DT @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)


Odds are correct as of Friday 14th of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.