Welcome to The Trend Bettor’s Round 1 2019 preview! It’s been a long 6 months, but footy is back! After an exciting and successful 2018 from a betting perspective, I’m excited to be sharing my trends and statistics for the upcoming season once again. I’ve spent a large chunk of the summer adding to my AFL database that dates back to 2010, so hopefully by researching and adding more variables, we can all benefit by finding more trends, and ultimately more profits.
I’m excited for another whole season of sharing what I have researched, and constantly interacting with the people who follow and appreciate the content that I produce.
Alright, no more talking! Here are some key round 1 trends that I have found over the summer:
Favourites have won 48 and lost 30 and drawn once (48-30-1 SU) in round 1 since 2010.
SU = Straight Up (winning record)
Favourites have covered the line 32 times, and have failed to cover the line 47 times (32-47 ATS) in round 1 since 2010.
ATS = Against the Spread
Non-Victorian teams playing at home against a travelling opponent are 21-8 SU, 19-10 ATS in round 1 since 2010. This applies to Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, and Freo.
9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS when underdogs (Applies to Brisbane, and potentially Fremantle.)
“Over” total points scored is 45-26 in round 1 since 2011.
Carlton vs Richmond – MCG – Thursday Night
Richmond are 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS in the last 7 games against Carlton
6 of the 7 wins have been by under 39.5 points (max = 43)
Over is 12-3 in the last 15 games between these two teams (average = 194.8, Median = 202)
7-0 in Round 1 (Average = 199.43, Median = 206)
Richmond are 22-1 SU, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games at the MCG
Carlton are 0-17 SU, 5-12 ATS in their last 17 night games at the MCG (average losing margin = 27.82, median = 26)
1.5 Units – Over 185.5 Total Points Score @ $1.91 (Bet365)
0.5 Units – Richmond 1-39 @ $2.40 (Pointsbet)